How do traders view the Fed's interest rate cuts in 2026? Kalshi data reveals the market's real expectations.

Question

The latest bets from traders on the Kalshi platform reveal an interesting signal: the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January 2026 is only 12%. What does this number indicate? The market is betting that high interest rates will not ease so quickly.

What does this mean for the crypto market? In the short term, the high Intrerest Rate environment will continue to suppress the valuations of risk assets. There is a significant divergence in investor expectations regarding the Fed's policy shift, but trading data clearly points in one direction—interest rate cuts are still a ways off. This has a direct impact on the liquidity and asset allocation strategies in the coin world.

AirdropHustler · Accepted Answer

12%？Laughing out loud, what is this guy still dreaming about, a rate cut is not coming anytime soon

High interest rates have locked everything in, our coins are in trouble now, funds have already moved out

Wait a little longer, anyway it’s only a few months, right...

The Federal Reserve just wants to trap risky assets, the crypto circle will have to take the hits passively

Now it's good, no hope in the short term, everyone should consider rebalancing their portfolios

A rate cut will take another 2 years? Will my HODL still be alive to see it?

NFTArtisanHQ · Answer

ngl the whole "12% probability" thing feels like traders are basically pricing in rate persistence as the new aesthetic... kinda like watching digital provenance locked into a deflationary narrative, except with fiat. fascinating paradigm shift honestly.

OnlyUpOnly · Answer

12%？Doesn't that mean the interest rate will be locked in until 2026? How are we supposed to get through these days?

If high interest rates don't loosen, us small investors will continue to be oppressed.

Wait a bit longer, everyone else is stocking up at the low points, and we still have to wait painfully.

Only in 2026 can we be free? That's heartbreaking. Can't afford to buy anything right now.

CountdownToBroke · Answer

12%？This probability is even lower than my success rate in bottom fishing haha

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High interest rates are going to last so long, how long does the cryptocurrency really need to stay frozen in the ice cellar...

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Waiting for interest rate cuts, I might as well go find a job

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No wonder the funding environment has been so cold recently, the Federal Reserve is just draining retail investors

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By the way, does anyone really bet on such things on Kalshi? I never knew

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No hope in the short term, let's just keep lying flat everyone

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Only 12% in 2026... I have to live until then to turn things around

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That's why my position is in deep water

GhostInTheChain · Answer

12%? That basically means there&#39;s no hope, don&#39;t expect to win easily before 2026.

When will this curse of high interest rates be broken? The crypto world is too hard to endure.

Wait, does this mean we have to keep holding on... the wallet is going to shrink again.

Is Kalshi&#39;s data reliable? It feels like the market has already seen through it, just doesn&#39;t want to say it out loud.

Short term? I&#39;m afraid the short term will turn into the long term, the funds have already run away.

With interest rate cuts far away, don&#39;t expect any rebounds.

MagicBean · Answer

A 12% probability being true is a bit desperate, which means interest rate cuts are still a long way off.

The high interest rate will continue to slash for a while, and the crypto world will keep getting drained.

Kalshi&#39;s data speaks for itself, the funding situation has no relief in the short term.

Wait, wait, wait, it feels like we have to wait until 2027.

At this rate, how can we buy the dip? Let&#39;s wait and see.

DegenApeSurfer · Answer

12% chance? Oh my, it really looks like we have to hold until 2026, the crypto world is going to take a long wait.

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High interest rate insurance assets? In short, it still feels like a bear market rhythm...

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Wait a minute, are Kalshi&#39;s traders looking at it this way? Then I need to recalculate my position.

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We still have to wait for the rate cut cycle... Will my airdrops last until then, haha?

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12%... such a low probability, the market is really betting that the Fed is stubborn as a dead duck.

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Short-term suppression of risk asset valuations, does that mean continuing to sell? I&#39;m already all in stable.

Degen4Breakfast · Answer

12% probability? This is ridiculous, it feels like the market is betting on whether the Fed will aggressively raise interest rates.

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Wait, high interest rates will continue to suppress coin prices? Does that mean my holdings will be stuck in a sideways market again...

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Do we still have to wait for the rate cut cycle? Damn, if that&#39;s the case, can short positions still be arrogant for another two years?

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Is Kalshi&#39;s data that accurate? It feels like market expectations change so quickly that we can&#39;t keep up.

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Short term is dead, dead, but thinking about it this way makes long-term allocation clearer.

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Wow, only 12% by 2026? Then going all in now feels a bit early.

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I&#39;ve known for a long time that high interest rates compress valuations, the key is when the real bottom will be.

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So is it still operating with a bear market mindset now? No wonder not many people dare to act.

TopEscapeArtist · Answer

A 12% probability... isn&#39;t this just saying that we have to continue enduring the days of high interest rates? From a technical perspective, this is a typical bearish signal. Friends with long-term Holdings need to prepare mentally.

How do traders view the Fed's interest rate cuts in 2026? Kalshi data reveals the market's real expectations.

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