#CryptoChristmasUpdate

– Will the Santa Claus Rally Come This Year? 🎄
Christmas is near, and all eyes are on Bitcoin (BTC) as traders and analysts speculate about the price targets for December. After fluctuating between $84,000 and $94,000 for a month, BTC is currently around $90,000.
Bullish Outlook
Some market experts expect a festive surge:
AlphaBTC & Captain Faibik predict a Santa Claus Rally, indicating that the correction may be over, with BTC potentially breaking above $98,000 – $100,000.
Korinek_Trades, using Elliott Wave Theory, envisions a new peak of $150,000.
Ignas highlighted the expiration of the option $26 Dec, which could push BTC towards $96,000.
Bearish Signal
However, not everyone is convinced:
Maksim Balashevich (Santiment) shows that social media sentiment has not reflected enough "panic" to confirm a bottom; BTC could still drop to $75,000.
CryptoOnchain (CryptoQuant) warns that a flow of BTC worth $1.4 billion on major exchanges could trigger a pullback to the demand zone of $70,000–$72,000.
Analysts such as Killa and Doctor Profit predict that after months of volatility, the next deep correction may arrive in Q1 2026, potentially targeting $60,000.
Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity noted that the four-year Bitcoin cycle has not ended, and the bearish market may continue until 2026, with support between $65,000 and $75,000.
On-Chain Insight
Analyst Murphy highlights significant chip accumulation between $80,000–$90,000, while the $70,000–$80,000 range remains a liquidity void that could potentially become strong support if BTC declines.
Santa Claus Effect
The so-called "Santa Rally" is traditionally seen in the stock market as a combination of:
Holiday optimism
Institutional year-end arrangement
Thin liquidity allows smaller funds to move prices
In crypto, volatility is much higher, and the Santa rally is more dependent on the broader bull/bear cycle.
Historical Data
Over the last 10–11 years, the average profit of Bitcoin in December has been around 8.25%, with the total market capitalization increasing by approximately 13.16%.
In the week before Christmas ( December 19–25, 2019, BTC has risen 8 out of 11 times, with the largest gain being +13.19% in 2016.
In the week after Christmas, BTC tends to rise 6–9 times, showing stronger market momentum with a positive return of 182%.
Note: In a bullish market, the Christmas rally is often larger and more likely to occur, while in a bearish market or consolidation phase, BTC may move sideways or slightly down.
Key Points
The average Christmas reliability magnitude is 1–2%, less than the full potential of December )~9%(.
Thin liquidity is a double-edged sword: it can amplify profits but also lead to sudden collapse.
Price spikes during holidays often reflect emotions rather than underlying trends.
Conclusion
This year, Santa Claus may be late or only bring small gifts. Prioritize rationality, risk management, and avoid blindly chasing sudden spikes.
Discussion
What do you think about crypto Christmas this year?
Are we heading towards a calm sideways movement?
Or a surprising rebound?
Share your position and prediction in the comments section!
Remember: The best holiday gift in crypto is good risk management.