Polymarket New Gameplay — Scanning the Early Market

Recently, I had a creative idea about how to play #Polymarket and hope to discuss it with everyone.

Everyone knows how to scan the closing market, but I want to reveal another way: scanning the early market.

Although Polymarket can predict the truth to some extent, at the moment an event just occurs,

the human brain has already quickly analyzed the event and made judgments about the probabilities of various outcomes.

Polymarket simply does not have the reaction speed of a human brain. Factors include the time to create and review a new prediction event on Polymarket, the long response cycle of collective intelligence, operational delays, and other factors.

This results in a phenomenon:

There is a period during which the probability of an event's outcome on Polymarket is lower than the collective judgment probability, which I call the pricing error phase.

Let me give an example.

Suppose the event is predicting the “U.S. stock listed internet company with the highest revenue in 2025,” and the judgment is based on the company's financial disclosures, then the possible outcomes might include:

- Amazon
- Alphabet
- Meta
- Microsoft
- Netflix
......

Although there may be dozens of companies in the options, it’s obvious that the final winner is likely to be among Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, or Microsoft.

We can even know their probabilities are higher than others without looking at the data.

When launching this prediction on Polymarket, during the pricing error phase, you can bet on these companies and sell when the pricing becomes correct to profit, even without waiting for the final result.

From the above explanation, I believe everyone can see that the key to this gameplay is timely monitoring and trading speed. Currently, it still seems profitable.

Now, let’s consider some more complex thinking.

Scanning the closing market essentially predicts the truth, while scanning the early market is essentially betting that someone will take the other side.

That is, from “I think this result has a higher probability than others” to “I think someone will raise the probability of this result after I place my bet.”

This small difference turns prediction behavior into financial trading behavior.