Half a century of gold price trends revealed | Will gold continue to rise in the next decade?

Why Has Gold Been Continually Rising Over the Past 50 Years?

Since President Nixon announced the detachment of the US dollar from gold in 1971, the international financial system has undergone earth-shaking changes. The collapse of the Bretton Woods system marked the end of an era and opened a new chapter for the modern gold market.

Over the past 50+ years, gold has risen from $35 per ounce to reach $3,700 by mid-2025, and in October, it even broke through the $4,300 per ounce mark. This means that gold prices have increased more than 120 times in half a century, far exceeding many people’s expectations.

Why has gold become one of the most stable stores of value? Because gold possesses natural scarcity, high density, excellent ductility, and strong preservation characteristics. In addition to its monetary attributes, it is widely used in jewelry, industrial manufacturing, and other fields, giving gold a dual identity as both a trading currency and a practical commodity.

The Four Major Historical Cycles of Gold Price Trends

First Wave: 1970–1975

After the dollar was decoupled from gold, a wave of selling dollars and buying gold emerged in the international market. Gold prices soared from $35 to $183 per ounce, an increase of over 400%.

The logic behind this rise was investors’ doubts about the credibility of the dollar. Once serving as a gold exchange certificate, the dollar suddenly lost this attribute, causing panic about its long-term value. Subsequently, the first oil crisis broke out, and the US increased the money supply to cope with the energy crisis, further pushing up gold prices. However, as the crisis eased and confidence in the dollar’s independent value was restored, gold prices eventually fell back to around $100.

Second Wave: 1976–1980

Gold once again broke through from $104 to $850 per ounce, an increase of over 700%. The driving forces during this period included the second Middle East oil crisis, the Iran hostage crisis, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

The global economy fell into stagflation, with inflation rates soaring in Western countries. Investors viewed gold as the best hedge against inflation. But this surge was too fierce; after the oil crisis subsided and Cold War tensions eased, gold prices quickly retreated, hovering between $200 and $300 for the next 20 years.

Third Wave: 2001–2011

From $260 to $1,921 per ounce, this decade-long rally also exceeded 700%. The “9/11 attacks” became the trigger for this bull market.

Following the event, the US launched a decade-long global anti-terrorism war, with massive military spending prompting the US government to cut interest rates and issue大量 government bonds. This led to a housing bubble expansion, and later, the Federal Reserve was forced to raise interest rates to control the situation, ultimately triggering the 2008 financial crisis. To save the economy, the Fed implemented quantitative easing, directly fueling a long-term bull market in gold. When the European debt crisis erupted in 2011, gold hit a new high.

Fourth Wave: 2015–Present

This has been the most critical gold price cycle of the past decade. Gold rose from $1,060 to the current $4,300, an increase of over 300%.

The factors driving this rise are extraordinarily complex: negative interest rate policies in Japan and Europe, the global de-dollarization trend, the US’s large-scale quantitative easing in 2020, the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, Middle East conflicts, and the Red Sea crisis in 2023. By 2024, gold prices showed even more volatility, starting the year with a strong stance, once reaching over $2,800 per ounce in October, creating an unprecedented new high.

Since 2025, ongoing tensions in the Middle East, new variables in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, US tariff policies sparking trade concerns, volatile global stock markets, a weakening US dollar index, and multiple other factors continue to push gold prices to new heights. The next decade’s gold trend will be heavily influenced by geopolitical developments, central bank policies, and the global economic situation.

What Is the Real Return Rate of Gold Investment?

Many investors often ask: Is gold really a good investment? The answer depends on the comparison dimension.

Long-term returns (1971–2025):

• Gold increased 120 times
• The Dow Jones Index rose from 900 points to about 46,000 points, an increase of 51 times

From this perspective, gold’s long-term return rate even surpasses stocks. From the beginning of 2025 to now, gold has risen from $2,690 per ounce to about $4,200 in mid-October, an increase of over 56%, demonstrating remarkable short-term momentum.

But the problem is: gold prices are not steadily rising. Between 1980 and 2000, gold prices stagnated in the $200–$300 range for nearly 20 years, offering no returns to investors. If you invested during this period, you would have been trapped for a full 20 years.

Therefore, gold is an excellent investment tool but is more suitable for swing trading rather than simple long-term holding. Investors should grasp market cycles, increasing positions during bull markets and reducing during peaks, to maximize returns.

It is worth noting that because gold is a natural resource, mining costs increase over time. Even if a bull cycle ends and a correction occurs, the overall price lows are gradually rising. This means that in the long run, gold has inherent hedging properties and will not depreciate to worthless levels.

The Investment Logic Differences Between Gold, Stocks, and Bonds

The sources of returns for these three asset classes are entirely different, and their applicable scenarios vary:

Gold’s returns come from price differences: Gold does not generate interest; investment returns depend entirely on timing the entry and exit points. To make money, you must catch market trends.

Bonds’ returns come from interest payments: Investors expand their interest income by continuously increasing the units held, while closely monitoring Federal Reserve policies to judge risk-free interest rate trends.

Stocks’ returns come from corporate growth: By selecting quality companies and holding long-term, investors enjoy the value appreciation brought by corporate growth.

Difficulty ranking: bonds are the easiest, gold is next, stocks are the hardest.

Return rate ranking varies with the time frame:

• Over the past 50 years, gold has performed the best
• Over the past 30 years, stocks have performed better, followed by gold, then bonds

An effective asset allocation strategy is “choose stocks during economic growth, allocate gold during recessions.” When the economy is prosperous, corporate profits improve, and stocks tend to rise; during downturns, gold’s hedging properties and bonds’ fixed income features come into play.

Five Methods of Gold Investment

1. Physical Gold

Direct purchase of gold bars and other tangible gold assets. Advantages include ease of asset concealment and the dual identity of gold as both an asset and jewelry; disadvantages are inconvenient trading and difficulty in liquidation.

2. Gold Passbook

Similar to early US dollar deposit certificates. After purchasing gold, it is recorded in a passbook, and physical gold can be withdrawn when needed. Advantages include portability; disadvantages are that banks do not pay interest, and buy-sell spreads are large.

3. Gold ETFs

A more liquid investment tool than gold passbooks. After purchasing a gold ETF, investors receive corresponding shares, which represent the number of gold ounces held. The issuing institution charges management fees, so in periods of no volatility, the value may slowly decline.

4. Gold Futures and Contracts for Difference (CFD)

These are the most commonly used financial instruments by retail investors. Both gold futures and CFDs use margin trading, with low transaction costs. CFDs, due to their flexibility in timing and capital utilization, are especially suitable for short-term swing trading.

Compared to futures’ high capital requirements, CFDs offer lower entry costs, making them suitable for small investors and retail traders. Traders can go long (buy bullish) or short (sell bearish), enabling flexible two-way trading. Using stop-loss and take-profit tools can effectively control risks.

5. Gold Funds

Invest indirectly in gold-related assets through funds managed by professional fund managers.

Outlook for the Next Ten Years

The past decade’s gold price trend has fully demonstrated that in an era of rising global economic uncertainty and increasing geopolitical risks, gold is increasingly valued by central banks and investment institutions. The main factors influencing gold prices in the next decade will include:

• Central bank reserve policies (continued accumulation of gold reserves)
• US dollar policies and US economic outlook
• Geopolitical risks (Middle East, Russia-Ukraine, etc.)
• Inflation expectations and interest rate policies
• Global de-dollarization trend

Facing rapidly changing markets, holding a balanced portfolio of stocks, bonds, and gold can effectively hedge against the volatility of individual assets and achieve more stable asset allocation.

Whether for short-term swing trading or long-term asset allocation, understanding gold’s historical trends and driving factors is the foundation for making rational investment decisions.