Will the price of gold rise in the coming days? 2026 forecasts indicate new record levels

Gold Witnesses Unprecedented Rise in 2025

The current year began with a dramatic surge in yellow metal prices, surpassing the $4,300 per ounce mark in mid-October before retreating toward $4,000 as November began. This volatility raised serious questions: Will the bullish trend continue? Can gold break the $5,000 barrier in 2026?

The truth is, these movements did not happen out of nowhere. The average gold price in 2025 rose to $3,455 per ounce, driven by real economic concerns and declining confidence in dollar-denominated assets. Global investors turned to safe havens, with gold taking the lead.

Investment Demand: The True Driving Force

The story is not limited to individual investments. Data from the World Gold Council showed that total demand for the metal in Q2 2025 reached 1249 tons, a 3% annual increase, but the biggest jump was in value: $132 billion, up 45%.

Gold ETFs( experienced massive inflows, pushing assets under management to $472 billion. Holdings are now very close to a record high of 3929 tons, a figure that alone explains the upward pressure on prices.

An important note: Over 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold to their portfolios for the first time, maintaining their positions even during correction periods, which enhanced price stability.

Central Banks: Buyers Never Stop

Global central banks have not paused for a moment in buying gold. They added 244 tons in Q1 2025 alone, a 24% increase over the five-year average quarterly figure.

The numbers speak clearly: 44% of central banks worldwide now manage gold reserves, up from 37% in 2024. China alone added more than 65 tons in the first half of the year, continuing this trend for the twenty-second consecutive month.

The message is clear: Central banks are diversifying away from the dollar, and gold is the top choice. This trend is expected to continue through the end of 2026.

Supply: Critical Bottleneck

But there is a problem on the other side. Mine production reached 856 tons in Q1 2025, a very slight increase of only 1% annually. This increase is insufficient to bridge the gap between rising demand and limited supply.

Worse still, recycled gold decreased by 1% during the same period. Why? Because people prefer to hold onto their assets expecting continued price increases rather than selling.

Global extraction costs rose to $1470 per ounce in mid-2025, the highest level in a decade. This means metals will not accelerate production, maintaining scarcity.

Federal Reserve: Cuts Ahead

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates in October 2025 by 25 basis points, bringing the range to 3.75-4.00%. Analysts expect a further 25 basis point cut at the December 2025 meeting.

In a moderate scenario, the rate could reach 3.4% by the end of 2026. The lower the interest rate, the less real yield on bonds, and the more attractive gold becomes as a hedge asset.

Global Monetary Policies: A Consensus on Easing

Not just the Fed. The European Central Bank has begun hinting at possible further cuts, and the Bank of Japan maintains its easing policy. This global consensus on liquidity injection strongly supports gold.

When currencies weaken and real yields fall, yellow metal becomes the logical choice for preserving value.

Inflation and Debt: Continuous Price Support

Global public debt has exceeded 100% of GDP, according to the IMF. This alarming figure drives investors to seek safe havens from losing purchasing power.

Even if inflationary pressures gradually ease, awareness of sovereign debt risks will persist, and gold benefits from this ongoing concern.

Bloomberg data shows that 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold holdings during Q3 2025.

Geopolitical Risks: Unexpected Support

Trade conflicts between the US and China, ongoing tensions in the Middle East—all added 7% to demand annually, according to Reuters. The higher the tensions, the greater the demand for gold.

History proves that gold moves swiftly during crises. Any new shock in 2026 could push prices to new record levels.

Dollar and Bonds: The Inverse Relationship

The dollar index declined by about 7.64% from its peak at the start of the year, driven by expectations of rate cuts. US 10-year bond yields fell from 4.6% to around 4.07%.

This dual decline boosts institutional demand for gold. Investors seek balance in their portfolios away from dollar assets.

Major Investment Bank Outlooks for 2026

HSBC expects a jump to $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an average of $4,600 for the full year.

Bank of America also raised its forecast to 5,000 dollars as a potential peak, with an average of $4,400, but warned of a possible short-term correction.

Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast to $4,900 per ounce, citing strong inflows into gold funds and continued central bank buying.

J.P. Morgan predicts gold reaching around $5,055 by mid-2026.

The most common range among analysts is between $4,800 and $5,000 as a potential peak, with an average between $4,200 and $4,800.

Middle East Outlook Aligns with Global Trend

In Egypt, CoinCodex forecasts suggest gold could reach around 522,580 EGP per ounce, a 158.46% increase.

In Saudi Arabia, translating the global forecast )5000 dollars( at a fixed exchange rate could result in approximately 18,750 to 19,000 SAR.

In the UAE, the same forecast might give an estimate close to 18,375 to 19,000 AED.

Note that these projections depend on assumptions such as stable exchange rates and continued global demand.

Downward Correction: A Potential Hurdle but Not Inevitable

HSBC warned that upward momentum might weaken in the second half of 2026, with corrections toward $4,200 if investors take profits, but excluding a drop below $3,800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs cautioned that sustained prices above $4,800 could test the market’s “price credibility.”

However, J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, thanks to a strategic shift in investor perception of it as a long-term asset.

Technical Analysis: What Does the Chart Say?

Gold closed trading on November 21, 2025, at $4,065.01 per ounce, after reaching its all-time high of $4,381.44 on October 20.

Price broke the ascending channel line on the daily chart but remains attached to the main short- and medium-term upward trendline.

Critical levels:

• Strong support at $4,000: a break could target $3,800 )50% Fibonacci retracement(
• Resistance at $4,200: a break above opens the way toward $4,400 and $4,680

Momentum indicators:

• RSI at 50: market is neutral, balanced between buying and selling pressure
• MACD: signal line above zero confirms a bullish overall trend

Most likely scenario: Continued sideways trading of gold within a bullish range between $4,000 and $4,220 in the near term, with the overall picture remaining positive as long as it stays above the main trendline.

Summary: Will Gold Price Rise in the Coming Days?

All indicators point to “yes,” but with some caution.

Record investment demand, relentless central bank buying, limited supply and high costs, falling interest rates, a weak dollar, and ongoing economic and geopolitical risks.

In 2026, gold is likely to test new levels above $4,800, with a real chance of reaching $5,000 or more if current factors persist.

The only scenario that could halt this rise is a sudden stabilization of inflation, full market confidence restoration, and significant tightening by central banks. Currently, these possibilities seem distant.

If you are considering investing or speculating in gold, ensure you study economic and geopolitical factors carefully, and monitor global monetary policies, especially Federal Reserve and European Central Bank decisions.