December 8 Market Focus: Gold, Silver, USD/JPY, Bitcoin—Fleeting Trend or Prelude to a Rebound?

Macro Background: Fed Policy and Bond Market Contradictions Intensify

Traders’ expectations for a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week have reached as high as 87%, with the market generally anticipating the first rate cut of the year and expecting two more cuts next year, ultimately setting the target rate in the 3.00%-3.25% range. However, ironically, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen against the trend to a high of 4.15%.

This contradiction reflects deeper concerns. Bond yields in major global economies are rising collectively—Japan’s 10-year government bond yield hits 1.97%, the U.S. 10-year Treasury reaches 4.14%, and Germany’s rises to 2.81%. Investors are beginning to worry: Is the Fed’s independence being questioned? Are expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates heating up? Is U.S. government debt becoming a pressure point? These factors intertwine, suggesting that the current market hides significant risks.

Bitcoin: Breaching the 90,000 Level and Rebound Fading?

Bitcoin rose 1.8% during Monday’s trading, reaching a high of $92,296, with the latest price at $87.75K. Notably, BTC has tested the $90,000 psychological level multiple days in a row, which has become a key battleground for bulls and bears.

On the technical side, the AO indicator shows bullish sentiment gathering, with the least resistance still pointing upward. However, the candlestick structure indicates increasing risks of a pullback from high levels. If BTC can hold above $90,000, it may continue to test $95,000 and even challenge the $100,000 mark; conversely, if it falls below $86,000, further decline toward $75,000 should be watched.

Key Technical Levels: Support at 90,000, 86,000, 75,000; Resistance at 95,000, 100,000, 106,000

USD/JPY: Long-term Uptrend Test, Break Risk Near

USD/JPY rose slightly by 0.1% on Monday, reaching a high of 155.54, temporarily stabilizing above the 155.0 level. More importantly, this currency pair faces a critical test of its long-term upward trendline.

The AO indicator has issued a warning—downward momentum is strengthening. This suggests that the decline in USD/JPY may not be over. If it loses the support at 155.0, the subsequent risk is a further drop to 152.0 and even 150.0; to reverse the trend, it needs to stabilize above 156.0.

Key Technical Levels: Support at 155.0, 152.0, 150.0; Resistance at 157.0, 158.0, 160.0

Gold: Repeated Failures at $4,200, Gann Line Rebound Watch

Gold rose 0.27% during Monday’s session, reaching a high of $4,219, but has struggled to stay above the $4,200 level for four consecutive days, with signs of a rebound increasingly limited.

From a time window and zone consolidation perspective, gold remains within a long-term consolidation range of 3,890 to 4,225. Caution is advised: if upward momentum weakens, the price could revisit the Gann 2/1 line support at $4,050, which would test the sustainability of the recent rebound.

The daily chart shows that the overall upward trend since February 2024 remains intact, currently building the fourth consolidation zone, indicating a medium-term bullish outlook, but with clear short-term downward pressure.

Key Technical Levels: Support at 4,130, 4,050, 3,930; Resistance at 4,220, 4,300, 4,381

Silver: New Highs and Increasing Sideways Movement, Bulls and Bears in Standoff

Silver rose 0.23% during Monday’s session, reaching a high of $58.72, with continuous new highs indicating ongoing bullish strength. However, silver is also caught in increasingly severe sideways consolidation, reflecting intense competition between bulls and bears.

The outlook for the near term is relatively clear: if silver can hold above $56.50 support, it may further rebound toward $60.0 and challenge $63.50. Conversely, if it breaks below $56.5, caution is needed for further declines toward $53.8 and even $51.0. Short-term volatility is rising, and investors should be cautious of downside risks.

Key Technical Levels: Support at 56.5, 53.5, 50.0; Resistance at 60.0, 63.5, 68.0

Overall Assessment: Transient or the Start of a New Uptrend?

Looking at the four major assets, the market presents a typical pattern of “short-term rebound, long-term concerns.” The Fed’s rate cut expectations support a short-term rise in risk assets, but the simultaneous increase in global bond yields signals deeper worries.

While assets like Bitcoin and gold show momentum for a rebound, they face technical resistance levels. Whether they can break through will determine if this rebound evolves into a new upward trend or ultimately becomes a fleeting short-term fluctuation. Investors should seize rebound opportunities while remaining alert to downside risks.