Lean Hog Futures See Notable Rally as Market Momentum Builds

Lean hog futures delivered a solid performance Thursday, with most contracts climbing between 30 and 65 cents as the market momentum continued to build. The session saw some interesting divergence in USDA pricing data: while the national base hog price settled at $71.87 on Thursday afternoon—reflecting a $2.74 retreat from Wednesday—the underlying futures contracts staged a respectable pop marketing traders’ interest in the commodity.

The CME Lean Hog Index painted a mixed picture, slipping another 40 cents to land at $86.27 as of November 18. Export demand showed some softness in recent tracking, with weekly sales data indicating 32,705 MT moved in the October 2 week, representing a pullback from the previous week’s volume. Actual shipments during that same period totaled 29,209 MT.

Price Dynamics and Carcass Valuations

The pork market received headwinds from the USDA’s Thursday PM carcass cutout report, which registered a $2.93 decline to $90.23 per cwt. This weakness was primarily driven by belly primals, which experienced a sharp $16.77 drop—a notable move that caught market participants’ attention. In contrast, loin and ham primals were among the few bright spots, managing to post gains.

Slaughter volumes remained robust through the week. The USDA’s preliminary count for Thursday came in at 494,000 head, pushing the week-to-date total to 1.976 million head. This represents a 4,000-head advantage over the prior week and marks an increase of 30,598 head compared to the same week a year ago.

Contract Closeouts

December 2025 Lean Hog contracts closed at $79.475, up $0.625 on the session. February 2026 contracts also participated in the rally, settling at $79.650 for a matching $0.625 gain. The further-dated April 2026 contract extended the upside move, closing at $83.725, up $0.650 for the day. The pop across the curve reflected underlying strength despite softer spot valuations.