Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR) Gets Fresh Buy Call: What the Latest Market Data Reveals

GasFeeCrybaby · 2025-12-26T05:51:07+00:00

Compass Point's **Buy** rating for Invesco Mortgage Capital contrasts with analyst projections of a potential downside to $7.65, indicating caution. While revenue is expected to rise significantly, institutional interest has increased, highlighting a complex investment landscape with both income potential and valuation risks.

GasFeeCrybaby

2025-12-26 05:51:07

Abstract generation in progress

Compass Point’s recent entry into coverage of Invesco Mortgage Capital has turned heads with a Buy rating, but here’s where things get interesting—the analyst consensus tells a different story. As of early December, the one-year price target sits at $7.65 per share, with projections ranging from $7.58 to $7.88. That’s a potential 5.32% downside from the stock’s latest close of $8.08/share, suggesting caution despite the bullish recommendation.

The Numbers Behind IVR

Invesco Mortgage Capital is projected to generate $225 million in annual revenue—a striking 211.05% increase—with non-GAAP EPS forecasted at 3.44. These figures paint an intriguing picture for income-focused investors, though the downside risk embedded in price targets warrants close attention.

Who’s Betting on IVR?

Institutional participation in Invesco Mortgage Capital has intensified, with 274 funds and institutions now holding positions. The last quarter alone saw an addition of 14 new shareholders, representing a 5.38% increase. Combined, these institutional players hold 39,186K shares, up 11.11% over three months. Average fund allocation to IVR stands at 0.08% of their portfolios, with a notable 2.65% increase in weighting. The put/call ratio of 0.30 hints at underlying bullish sentiment among options traders.

Major Holders and Portfolio Moves

Large asset managers are actively managing their IVR exposure. Invesco itself maintains a 3.32% stake with 2,357K shares—up 3.69% from prior filings, though the firm cut its overall portfolio weight by 89.17%. The Invesco KBW High Dividend Yield Financial ETF holds 3.15% with 2,236K shares, down 2.35% sequentially but still a significant position. Vanguard’s Total Stock Market Index Fund holds 1,979K shares (2.79%), while the iShares Russell 2000 ETF and Geode Capital Management round out the top holders with 2.51% and 2.26% ownership respectively.

The takeaway: while institutional support remains solid for IVR, the divergence between bullish coverage and downside price targets suggests investors should weigh both the income potential and valuation risks before positioning.

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