Deep-Sea Mining Popping Off: How U.S. Critical Minerals Strategy Is Fueling TMC's Explosive Rally

Market Momentum Reflects Strategic Shift

The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) has staged a remarkable turnaround in 2025, with shares surging 470% year-to-date despite hitting lows more than 50% below mid-October peaks. The stock’s recent 16% monthly gain signals something more significant than typical market rotation—it reflects a fundamental repositioning around America’s critical minerals independence.

Policy Tailwinds: The Real Driver Behind TMC’s Popping Stock Price

The catalyst behind this explosive move traces directly to Washington. In April, the White House issued an executive order specifically targeting offshore critical minerals and deep-sea resources, framing seabed mineral development as essential to national security. This represented a seismic shift for The Metals Company, which had previously faced regulatory uncertainty and international obstacles.

Prior to this policy backing, TMC operated in a holding pattern. While the company successfully demonstrated its deep-sea mining technology works, it awaited approval from the International Seabed Authority (ISA) to commence operations. The ISA’s failure to finalize commercial mining regulations left TMC and competitors staring at billions in recoverable resources with no clear extraction pathway.

Breaking Through the ISA Impasse

Here’s where the U.S. policy becomes strategic. The United States never ratified the treaty establishing the ISA, meaning it could potentially pursue independent deep-sea operations outside the authority’s framework. Though this carries future political risks, it creates a possible route for TMC to begin commercial mining earlier than previously feasible under international constraints.

The urgency amplifies against the backdrop of supply chain dynamics. Washington has negotiated critical minerals agreements across multiple allies—Australia, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, and others—as part of its China decoupling strategy. The Metals Company positions itself as a crucial domestic supplier in this emerging network.

The Reality Check: No Revenue Yet

Despite the bullish narrative, investors should recognize TMC remains purely speculative. The company generates zero commercial revenue and depends entirely on future execution of its mining operations and regulatory approval. The popping stock price reflects market optimism about long-term potential rather than demonstrated business fundamentals.

The 470% rally prices in considerable hope that U.S. policy support translates into actual mining permits, successful extraction, and profitable commercial operations. Each step remains uncertain, and regulatory outcomes could shift with political winds or international negotiations.