Global Rare Earth Mineral Reserves: A Shifting Power Landscape

The world’s appetite for rare earth minerals is surging as nations race toward clean energy and technological innovation. Yet supply chain vulnerabilities are intensifying geopolitical tensions. Understanding which countries control these critical resources reveals an uneven distribution of power—and significant opportunities for new market entrants.

The Global Picture: Where the World’s Rare Earth Reserves Are Concentrated

At 130 million metric tons globally, rare earth mineral reserves appear abundant. But the reality is far more complex. Production capacity lags dramatically behind reserves, and geopolitical disputes threaten the smooth flow of these essential materials. Global output reached 390,000 MT in 2024, a modest increase from 376,000 MT the year prior, yet demand continues climbing.

China’s stranglehold on the market remains overwhelming. The nation controls 44 million metric tons of reserves—roughly one-third of the world’s total—while producing 270,000 MT annually, accounting for nearly 70% of global output. This dominance has come with calculated strategy: domestic stockpiling programs initiated in 2016, export restrictions, and aggressive enforcement against illegal mining operations have all reinforced Beijing’s leverage.

The Reserve Leaders: Which Nations Hold the Cards

Brazil’s Sleeping Giant

Brazil sits second with 21 million metric tons of rare earth mineral reserves, yet produced a mere 20 MT in 2024. This dramatic gap is closing rapidly. Serra Verde commenced Phase 1 operations at its Pela Ema deposit in Goiás at the start of 2024, with projections to produce 5,000 MT annually by 2026. The operation will focus on the four critical magnet rare earths—neodymium, praseodymium, terbium and dysprosium—positioning Brazil as the only non-Chinese producer capable of supplying all four simultaneously.

Emerging Players Beyond China

India (6.9 million MT), Australia (5.7 million MT), Russia (3.8 million MT), and Vietnam (3.5 million MT) together represent an alternative supply ecosystem. India’s advantage lies in its 35% share of global beach and sand mineral deposits. Australia, though mining rare earth minerals only since 2007, has accelerated through companies like Lynas Rare Earths, now the world’s largest non-Chinese supplier. Lynas’ Mount Weld expansion completes in 2025, while Hastings Technology Metals’ Yangibana mine prepares first delivery in Q4 2026.

Russia’s reserves were revised sharply downward from 10 million MT to 3.8 million MT in 2024, reflecting war-related disruptions and postponed development ambitions. Vietnam saw even more dramatic revision—from 22 million MT to 3.5 million MT—following regulatory crackdowns on rare earths traders in late 2023.

The United States, despite ranking second in 2024 production at 45,000 MT, holds only 1.9 million metric tons in reserves. Production remains concentrated at California’s Mountain Pass mine, operated by MP Materials. The company is now developing downstream capabilities at its Fort Worth facility to convert rare earth oxides into magnets and precursor materials, signaling movement toward domestic supply chain integration.

Frontier Reserves: Greenland and the Arctic Opportunity

Greenland’s 1.5 million metric tons of rare earth mineral reserves remain untapped. Two projects dominate: the Tanbreez project, where Critical Metals acquired a controlling stake in July 2024 and commenced drilling in September, and Kvanefjeld, operated by Energy Transition Minerals. Kvanefjeld’s license was revoked over uranium extraction concerns, though an amended plan excluding uranium was rejected as well. The company awaits a court decision on its appeal as of October 2024.

The island nation has attracted unexpected geopolitical attention, with US President Donald Trump recently signaling interest in its reserves. However, both Greenland’s Prime Minister and the Danish monarchy have firmly rejected any notion of sale.

Europe itself has limited production but harbors significant potential. Sweden’s state-owned LKAB identified the Per Geijer deposit in early 2023, containing over 1 million metric tons of rare earth mineral oxides—the continent’s largest known deposit. The Fennoscandian Shield regions (Norway, Finland, Sweden) and Greenland share similar mineralization patterns, creating a geographic cluster of underdeveloped resources.

Production Methods and Environmental Trade-offs

Rare earth minerals are extracted via open-pit mining or in-situ leaching. The latter involves pumping chemical solutions into ore bodies, dissolving target materials into brine for collection. Separation of individual rare earths remains the bottleneck—their similar chemical properties make this process lengthy and expensive, often requiring hundreds to thousands of extraction cycles.

Environmental costs are substantial. Ores frequently contain radioactive thorium and uranium, generating contaminated tailings. Myanmar’s mountains, now bearing the brunt of China’s outsourced mining, show severe degradation—2,700 illegal leaching pools covered an area the size of Singapore as of mid-2022. Over 100 landslides have occurred in China’s Ganzhou region alone, with local communities facing contaminated groundwater and depleted wildlife.

Strategic Implications and Market Evolution

The rare earth mineral market reflects broader technological competition. China’s 2023 ban on exporting magnet production technology to the US exemplifies this escalation. Simultaneously, Beijing has begun importing heavier rare earths from Myanmar to supplement domestic supplies, enabling Beijing to maintain production leadership while deferring environmental damage to less regulated jurisdictions.

The US Department of Energy allocated $17.5 million in April 2024 toward secondary rare earth recovery technologies, exploring extraction from coal byproducts as an alternative feedstock strategy. Such moves signal a pivot toward supply chain resilience over pure volume.

As electric vehicle adoption accelerates and high-tech manufacturing intensifies globally, the coming decade will determine whether new producers can effectively challenge China’s century-long dominance or whether Beijing’s first-mover advantages prove insurmountable.