From historical lows to 126K: The evolution of Bitcoin Bull Run cycles and future opportunities

In the fifteen-year development history of cryptocurrencies, each bull market cycle of Bitcoin has left a profound mark. From $1,200 in 2013 to nearly the all-time high of $126.08K today, BTC’s upward trajectory reflects the entire digital asset market’s transition from the fringe to the mainstream. Currently, Bitcoin’s price fluctuates around $89.02K, and this Bullrun has already exhibited completely different characteristics from previous ones.

The Driving Mechanism of Bitcoin Bullruns: From Scarcity to Institutional Recognition

Behind each Bitcoin bull market, there is a clear economic logic. As a digital asset with a fixed total supply of 21 million coins, Bitcoin’s scarcity is itself the foundation of its value. The halving events every four years further reduce the supply growth rate of new coins. Historical data shows:

• After the 2012 halving, BTC increased by 5200%
• After the 2016 halving, BTC increased by 315%
• After the 2020 halving, BTC increased by 230%

The fourth halving in April 2024 follows this pattern, providing supply-side support for the latest Bullrun. But what makes this cycle unique is that institutional recognition has become the main driving force.

2024-2025: Institutional Entry and the ETF Era

In January 2024, the US SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF, marking a historic turning point. Compared to the retail frenzy in 2013 and the media hype in 2017, this Bullrun shows more maturity—driven by institutional capital inflows.

As of now, net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $28 billion, surpassing the historical performance of gold ETFs. Institutions like MicroStrategy and BlackRock hold over 467,000 BTC. On-chain data indicates that these institutions are continuously accumulating rather than cashing out profits. The 24-hour trading volume of $877.66 million, relative to a circulating market cap of $1.777 trillion, suggests that market participation remains healthy.

Historical Benchmark: From $1,200 in 2013 to Today’s Breakthrough

Looking back at the first Bullrun in 2013, BTC surged from $145 in May to $1,200 in December, a 730% increase. At that time, the driving forces were tech enthusiasts’ enthusiasm and safe-haven demand amid the Cyprus banking crisis. However, the Mt. Gox collapse in 2014 severely damaged the market, causing BTC to fall below $300.

The 2017 Bullrun was driven by the ICO craze and retail FOMO, with BTC soaring from $1,000 to $20,000, a 1900% increase. This period was characterized by extreme volatility—followed by a decline of over 84% in 2018, reaching $3,200.

In contrast, the 2020-2021 Bullrun followed a completely different logic. During the pandemic, liquidity flooding, rising inflation expectations, and institutional demand for hedging assets pushed BTC from $8,000 to $64,000 (+700%). During this period, Bitcoin was redefined as “digital gold.”

Today, the 2024-2025 cycle combines all these factors: halving supply, institutional ETF recognition, geopolitical safe-haven demand, and more mature market infrastructure.

Key Signals for Identifying a Bullrun

For investors, early signals of a Bullrun are crucial. On the technical side, RSI above 70 (currently at healthy levels) and price breaking above the 200-day moving average are important indicators confirming an upward trend.

On-chain data offers more predictive insights:

• Continuous decline in exchange BTC balances indicates holders are accumulating rather than selling
• Significant increase in stablecoin inflows into exchanges suggests new capital entering
• The number of whale wallets (addresses holding 1000+ BTC) is increasing

Policy changes are also noteworthy. The shift in US attitudes from “crackdown” to “acceptance,” especially with the advancement of the “BITCOIN Act” incorporating BTC into strategic reserves, will support a long-term Bullrun.

How the Next Bullrun Might Evolve

Based on historical patterns and current conditions, the next phase of a Bullrun may feature:

Government Adoption: Bhutan has accumulated 13,000 BTC through its sovereign fund; El Salvador adopted BTC as legal tender in 2021. If more countries follow suit, demand for BTC will reach new levels.

Technological Upgrades: The restoration of OP_CAT code could enable Bitcoin network support for Layer-2 scaling and DeFi applications, greatly expanding BTC’s use cases—from a “digital treasury” to a “computing platform.”

Market Maturity: With more ETF products, futures markets, and custody solutions, retail FOMO-driven demand will gradually be replaced by institutional allocation strategies, which may reduce but not eliminate volatility.

Practical Guide to Preparing for the Next Bullrun

Different types of investors should adopt tailored strategies:

Long-term Holders: Focus on fundamentals rather than price swings. While $89.02K is below the $126.08K all-time high, it still remains within an upward cycle. Set reasonable target prices (e.g., retracement levels from historical highs) rather than chasing peaks.

Swing Traders: Combine technical indicators and on-chain data. When RSI drops below 50 and stablecoin inflows decrease, it may be a good opportunity to add positions. Conversely, when extreme optimism appears (search interest surges, BTC is discussed everywhere), be cautious of short-term corrections.

Risk Management: Regardless of strategy, setting stop-losses is essential. Historically, each Bullrun has experienced 30-50% retracements. Being psychologically prepared for such volatility is crucial.

Risks Not to Overlook

While the outlook for Bullruns is exciting, hidden risks also deserve attention:

• Regulatory Uncertainty: Global regulatory attitudes remain volatile; sudden policy changes can trigger panic selling.
• Macroeconomic Shocks: Unexpected rate cuts or hikes by the Federal Reserve could alter capital flows.
• Market Leverage: Excessive leverage among retail and institutional players can become a risk source.
• Environmental Concerns: Although Bitcoin mining is shifting toward renewable energy, environmental debates persist.

Conclusion: A Bullrun Is Not the Goal, But a Process

The rise from $145 to $126.08K symbolizes not just price growth but Bitcoin’s transformation from an outsider innovation to a mainstream asset. Each Bullrun is a market re-pricing of BTC’s value, with different participants, drivers, and structures.

We are currently in a unique position—benefiting from the strongest institutional support in history (ETFs, government recognition) while retaining early-stage investment opportunities. But this does not mean guaranteed wealth; it calls for rationality and patience.

Monitor key indicators, manage risks, and regularly review your investment assumptions—these are the right approaches to profit steadily during a Bullrun.