When will the next bull market for Bitcoin arrive? Observing the historical cycles reveals the patterns of the crypto market

The current BTC price is around $88,990, with about 30% room to reach its all-time high of $126,080. Many investors are asking: when will the next crypto bull market arrive? The answer to this question is hidden within the market cycles of the past 15 years.

Understanding Bitcoin’s Pulsing Pattern Through the Halving Cycle

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced clear 4-year cyclical fluctuations. The core driver of this cycle is the halving event—approximately every 4 years, Bitcoin’s mining reward is halved, directly reducing the supply of new coins.

Historical data is very clear:

• After the 2012 halving, BTC surged by 5,200%
• After the 2016 halving, BTC increased by 315%
• After the 2020 halving, BTC rose by 230%
• Following the fourth halving in April 2024, the market has reignited

The logic behind halving is simple— the rate of new coin inflow into the market decreases, while demand (especially from institutional investors) continues to grow, creating an imbalance that pushes prices higher. Currently, the circulating supply of BTC is close to 20 million coins, with less than 1 million remaining to be mined, continuously reinforcing scarcity.

New Variables in the 2024-2025 Bull Market: The Power of Spot ETFs

Unlike previous cycles, this bull market has a new booster—U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Since the SEC approved these products in January 2024, they have attracted over $28 billion in net inflows within just 11 months, surpassing the growth rate of gold ETFs.

Institutional investors entering via ETFs have changed the game:

• No need to manage private keys themselves
• Can be included in retirement accounts (like 401k)
• Higher trust and more standardized processes

BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone holds over 467,000 BTC, accounting for about 2.3% of the total global supply. Companies like MicroStrategy are aggressively accumulating coins, continuously setting new records. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are steadily decreasing, with more coins being locked in long-term institutional holdings.

Technical Perspective: RSI Has Entered the Strong Zone

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is in a clear upward trend. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has frequently broken above 70 during this bull cycle, typically indicating strong buying dominance. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages have already formed a golden cross, with the 50-day moving average staying well above the 200-day, a textbook confirmation of a bull market.

The last new high was reached in November 2024—$93,000. From the beginning of the year at $40,000 to $93,000, a 132% increase in just 10 months.

On-Chain Signals: Whales Are Quietly Accumulating

Beneath the calm price surface, on-chain data tells a different story:

1. Significant increase in stablecoin inflows — USDT and USDC balances on exchanges are at historic highs, indicating large funds preparing to buy
2. Bitcoin reserves on exchanges hit new lows — More BTC are being transferred from exchanges into self-custody wallets, showing institutional accumulation and retail risk management
3. Active addresses surge — Over 55.1 million addresses holding coins, a new all-time high, indicating expanding participation

While market sentiment currently shows a balanced outlook of 50% bullish and 50% bearish, this in itself is meaningful—maintaining such a balance at a market high suggests that additional capital is still flowing in.

Why This Cycle Is Different: Government-Level Involvement

If 2020-2021 was about institutional awakening, 2024-2025 is about government participation. Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the BITCOIN Act, which suggests the Treasury could buy 1 million BTC over five years, representing about 4.7% of the total supply.

Not only the U.S. — Bhutan’s state-owned investment company Druk Holdings has accumulated over 13,000 BTC, and El Salvador is the first country to adopt BTC as legal tender, holding 5,875 coins and increasing holdings. These government-level purchases are essentially giving Bitcoin a credit endorsement.

Imagine if more countries start adding Bitcoin to their foreign exchange reserves (just like they hold gold)—what would that look like?

Technical Upgrades: Bitcoin Becoming Stronger

The potential activation of the OP_CAT opcode is a long-term positive. This upgrade could enable Bitcoin to support more complex smart contracts, unlock Layer-2 scaling solutions (thousands of transactions per second), and even run DeFi applications on Bitcoin.

In simple terms, Bitcoin might evolve from “digital gold” into an asset that can both store value and generate yield. This would significantly expand its use cases and market size.

Timing the Next Bull Run

Based on the above analysis, we can infer several key timeframes:

First half of 2025 — ETF inflows will continue, and by the end of 2025, the U.S. might approve spot Bitcoin options, attracting more derivatives traders.

Mid-2025 to early 2026 — If the BITCOIN Act passes or gains political support, government-level purchases could commence, serving as a scenario-level catalyst.

Spring 2026 — The next halving will occur in 2028, but markets typically react 12-18 months in advance, so late 2025 to mid-2026 could see renewed enthusiasm.

How Investors Should Respond

Understanding Bitcoin’s cyclical nature is crucial for investment decisions, but execution is even more important. A reliable response plan should include:

1. Build solid foundational knowledge

Don’t chase after unfamiliar or high-flying assets. Deeply understand Bitcoin’s technical principles, halving mechanism, and market structure. Past bull-bear transitions reveal patterns worth recognizing.

2. Develop a clear investment framework

• Assess your risk tolerance (this is vital)
• Set reasonable target prices and stop-loss points
• Prepare psychologically: 20-30% pullbacks are normal during bull markets

3. Choose secure trading tools

Options include: spot ETFs (safest but higher fees), spot exchanges, futures, options. Each has risk-reward trade-offs—select what you can handle.

4. Prioritize security

For long-term holdings: use hardware wallets, enable 2FA, regularly back up seed phrases. Don’t let technical issues ruin your investment.

5. Keep updating your information

Follow reliable news sources, monitor:

• Policy developments in the U.S. and major economies
• ETF inflows and outflows
• On-chain whale movements
• Macro-economic data (interest rates, inflation, etc.)

Current Market Reflection

The current price of $88,990 compared to the high of $126,080 leaves about 42% upside. Compared to last year’s $98,390, the current price has retraced roughly 9.5%. Such a correction is common historically—often a sign of technical consolidation.

The 24-hour trading volume of $88.243 billion indicates ample market liquidity, a healthy sign. The 1-year return of -10.48% looks negative, but that’s because prices were already high at the start of 2024.

Summary: Countdown to the Next Big Feast

Bitcoin’s bull market pattern has been validated multiple times: halving → supply squeeze → institutional + retail participation → price surge. The difference now is the upgraded participant structure: from tech enthusiasts in 2013, retail frenzy in 2017, institutional entry in 2021, to government-level involvement in 2024-2025.

Each new layer of participation expands Bitcoin’s market scale by an order of magnitude.

Potential triggers include ETF innovations, the progress of the BITCOIN Act, a major country announcing BTC reserve policies, or simply the market’s collective energy reaching a critical point and igniting.

For investors, rather than obsessing over perfect timing, it’s better to:

• Understand cycle patterns
• Set clear goals
• Follow a plan
• Manage risks
• Stay patient and wait

Every major correction in Bitcoin’s history has proven to be a good entry point. This time may be no different.