This is not a bull market; this is a showdown. When silver rises 8% in a single day, when Shanghai prices surge to $80 intraday, while derivatives markets in New York and London face liquidity shortages, and prices climb with almost no speculative funds participating—you are witnessing, no longer a market, but a signal that the system is beginning to lose control. Silver is becoming the first metal in the global financial system to be cornered.

1. An Unconventional Fact: Silver Soars, but Speculators Are Absent
This rally is different from the past. Many people, seeing such a huge increase, instinctively think that speculative funds are behind the chaos. But the reality is quite the opposite. Over the past 6–8 weeks, COMEX silver open interest has been steadily declining, indicating that silver is rising without leverage-driven speculation. This is not a sentiment-driven rally, not a short squeeze by retail investors, nor a frenzy by hot money—it's a price increase driven by the disappearance of willing sellers.

2. The London Gold and Silver Market Can No Longer Hold
There has always been a default assumption: as long as there are "paper contracts," delivery can always be made somewhere. That assumption is being broken in the case of silver.
London: Physical deliverable silver is extremely tight
New York: Inventories are locked up and unwilling to release
Asia: Especially China, is systematically absorbing physical silver
Historically, China has been the "liquidity buffer" for global silver: physical silver flows out of China to support derivatives trading in London and New York. But now, this mechanism has failed. China is no longer a marginal supplier. When physical liquidity disappears, the derivatives market faces only one outcome: using less and less real silver to support more and more paper promises. This is the first front of the silver "war."

3. Silver Is Not a "Precious Metal," But a "Strategic Industrial Metal"
This is a point many investors overlook. Silver is not purely a safe-haven asset; it is vital to industry: photovoltaics (solar cells), electric vehicles, semiconductors, new energy storage. What truly changes the supply-demand structure is an almost unpriced variable—the next-generation battery revolution.
Samsung has launched the latest all-solid-state battery, with a range of about 800 miles, to be used initially in high-end electric vehicles. The key is not technology but materials. Such a battery requires about 1 kilogram of silver, whereas traditional lithium batteries need only 25–30 grams—a magnitude of change.
The only question is: where does this silver come from?
China is changing the rules. China has made it clear: starting in 2026, it will implement a two-year silver export licensing system (a binding measure). The reason is simple: silver is not just a "precious metal," but a nationally strategic industrial resource. If silver is allowed to flow overseas into derivative markets as in the past, future new energy, energy storage, and advanced manufacturing will be choked off. Therefore, this time, China has chosen to "retain silver." This means the "London–New York" system loses its last physical liquidity buffer.
Currently, silver prices are rising with almost no ETF participation. But every New Year, global asset managers do one thing: reallocate assets. When they see gold up 72% in a year, silver up 163%, platinum up 160%, and copper up 45%, they realize one thing: "We missed it."
Once ETFs start absorbing silver physically, the market will no longer be "tight" but uncontrollable. Because ETFs buy physical silver, not contracts. This will directly pressure swap dealers, market makers, and small gold and silver banks—some of whom are simply unable to deliver.
What is likely to happen next is that some small gold and silver exchanges will "quietly encounter issues." Their official line is: "Technical problems have been properly handled," but the truth is: the system will be held up, but silver prices will not be allowed to fall. Because admitting failure would mean acknowledging that the entire derivatives system is hollow.
Silver is doing one thing—forcing the financial system to face the constraints of the physical world. That’s why its rise is so "unusual": no stories, no emotions, no speculative frenzy. Only a cold fact: as more and more people want "real silver," the system finds it can no longer supply it.
The problem with gold is trust; the problem with silver is quantity. Gold is a collapse of trust; silver is a war of fulfillment. The war will be prolonged and unseemly. When this war truly reaches its climax, the market will punish not the shorts, but those still believing that "paper promises will always be fulfilled." This is not a bull market; it’s a showdown.