RMB surges, Bitcoin consolidates: Why did the decline in the US dollar not boost cryptocurrencies?

As 2025 draws to a close, the global financial markets are unfolding a rare and contradictory scene. On one hand, the dollar’s weakness is becoming increasingly evident, while on the other hand, the RMB exchange rate is surging, reaching a two-and-a-half-year high. Meanwhile, traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver are undergoing a historic revaluation, with prices hitting new highs repeatedly. However, in this macroeconomic feast that should be paving the way for cryptocurrencies, one of the main players—Bitcoin—has unexpectedly fallen silent, with its price hovering in a critical range.

This classic, textbook-like bullish script—weak dollar, strong safe havens—seems to be failing when it comes to Bitcoin. Market observers can’t help but ask: why haven’t the RMB’s surge and the dollar’s decline ignited a crypto bull market as they have in the past? Is this merely a temporary market malfunction, or is there a deeper structural shift at play?

Macro Background

To understand Bitcoin’s predicament, we must first examine the grand narrative of current global assets.

First, the RMB’s strength is the beginning of this grand scene. The onshore RMB/USD exchange rate approached the psychological threshold of 7.0 in late December, reaching its strongest level since May 2023. Behind this momentum is Chinese exporters rushing to convert their dollar earnings into RMB at year-end. Analysts estimate that over one trillion dollars in offshore corporate dollar reserves may eventually flow back into China. This trend is not just a seasonal adjustment but driven by multiple factors: signs of economic recovery in China, the Fed’s easing cycle, and the self-reinforcing cycle created by the RMB’s appreciation itself. When the dollar’s appeal diminishes, capital naturally flows toward assets with greater appreciation potential.

Meanwhile, the precious metals market is staging an even more frenzied “value discovery” journey. Data shows gold prices unprecedentedly broke through $4,500 per ounce, with a 71% increase for the entire year of 2025, adding nearly $13 trillion in market value in just one year. This is not merely capital rotation but a thorough re-rating by global investors of safety, scarcity, and long-term value.

Silver’s performance is even more astonishing. Spot silver prices surged to $76 per ounce on December 27, a 160% increase year-to-date. As prices soared, silver’s total market value approached $4.3 trillion, surpassing tech giant Apple and becoming the third-largest global asset after gold (about $31 trillion) and NVIDIA (about $4.6 trillion). Silver’s strength benefits from its dual nature: on one hand, it is a traditional monetary metal against inflation; on the other hand, industrial demand in solar photovoltaic, electric vehicles, AI data centers, and semiconductors is exploding.

Even traditional risk assets are performing well, with the US S&P 500 reaching record highs, demonstrating market confidence in corporate earnings and economic resilience. In this “melt-up” environment where almost all major asset classes are celebrating, Bitcoin’s absence is particularly glaring.

Digital Gold

In theory, a weakening dollar should make dollar-denominated Bitcoin relatively cheaper, attracting more buyers, and the “digital gold” narrative should gain more supporters as risk aversion rises. However, reality is quite the opposite.

While gold and silver continue to hit new highs, Bitcoin remains trapped in a narrow range between $85,000 and $90,000, with multiple failed attempts to break above $90,000. Year-to-date, Bitcoin has even declined by about 13%, heading into its worst fourth quarter performance in the past seven years. This stark divergence makes it increasingly difficult for market observers to ignore.

So, what factors are causing this disconnect?

Year-end liquidity tightening and institutional fund outflows: The primary reason may be the thin trading volume caused by the holiday season. Low liquidity amplifies market volatility but lacks the “belief-driven” capital to sustain trends. More critically, institutional capital flows have reversed. According to SoSoValue data, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced five consecutive days of net outflows, totaling over $825 million. This indicates that the key force that drove the market higher earlier in 2025—institutional investors—are now retreating.

External market uncertainties: The Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates last week for the first time in three decades. Although the yen weakened after the decision, this move introduced ongoing uncertainty into global markets, suppressing overall risk appetite. In such a complex macro environment, capital prefers assets with higher certainty.

Certainty outweighs potential: Capital is currently flowing into assets with “clarity” and “certainty.” Gold has centuries of safe-haven history, silver benefits from solid industrial demand, and stocks are supported by earnings, dividends, and buybacks. In contrast, Bitcoin offers “potential.” At this point, the market clearly favors certainty over future possibilities. This has put unprecedented pressure on Bitcoin’s narrative as a macro hedge.

Future Divergence

Although Bitcoin is currently in a difficult position, not everyone is pessimistic about its prospects. The market has formed two very different interpretations.

One view sees this as “delayed rather than absent” bull market. Some analysts expect that as market liquidity recovers in January 2026 and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path becomes clearer, the current macro tailwinds will eventually feed into the crypto market. Once short-term suppressors are removed, Bitcoin could experience a strong “catch-up” rally.

The other view is more grand, believing we are witnessing a profound transformation of the global monetary system. Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” is highly representative. Kiyosaki interprets Warren Buffett’s behavior as a significant signal. After years of despising gold, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has not only invested in gold mining companies but also accumulated a record-breaking cash reserve of over $340 billion.

Kiyosaki sees Buffett’s shift as a warning that stock and bond markets are about to collapse, possibly leading to an economic depression. He urges: “It’s time to listen to Buffett and buy some gold, silver, Bitcoin, and Ethereum.” In his view, Bitcoin and Ethereum, like precious metals, are essential tools to hedge against the impending “fiat currency collapse.” This view resonates with market commentators, who believe that when Buffett starts embracing gold, the signal is not just about metals but about the disintegration of the fiat currency system. From this perspective, Bitcoin’s current stagnation is merely building strength for a bigger storm.

Conclusion

By the end of 2025, the global financial markets present a rare picture of asset divergence. The RMB’s surge and the dollar’s weakness have not, as expected, become catalysts for Bitcoin but instead highlight its disconnection from traditional safe-haven assets. This divergence results from a combination of short-term factors: year-end liquidity drought, temporary retreat of institutional funds, and market’s extreme preference for “certainty” amid uncertainty.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin stands at a critical crossroads. Will it regain market leadership in early 2026 and stage a violent rally? Or will its narrative as a macro hedge continue to be challenged, further widening the gap with traditional assets?

There is no definitive answer yet. But what is certain is that 2025 has thoroughly shattered many market consensus. The epic rise of gold and silver, along with Bitcoin’s unexpected stagnation amid macro tailwinds, are rewriting the investment script in real time. Currently, Bitcoin is the intriguing “outsider,” quietly observing the global capital migration triggered by the dollar’s weakness, waiting for its next decisive moment.