#ETF与衍生品 Seeing Wood's recent statements, I am reminded of the logic behind the 2017 bull market—back then, the topic of institutional entry was also a hot discussion, but what was the real turning point? It still depends on whether products like ETFs can truly open the floodgates for institutional funds.

As for BTC's positioning within the global monetary system, I've heard this narrative for over a decade, but it took a full cycle for it to evolve from a geek toy to an institutional allocation asset. The flash crash on 10.11 is quite representative—BTC's liquidity was the strongest, yet it was the first to be hammered down, which clearly illustrates its double-edged sword nature: deep trading depth, but in extreme emotions, it is also the easiest to be used as a "safety exit."

The key variable now indeed hinges on whether giants like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America will launch crypto ETFs. This is not just about product launch; it is a formal recognition of crypto assets by the traditional financial system—an institutional acknowledgment. Historically, every such institutional breakthrough has marked the beginning of a new phase.

The classification of ETH as infrastructure and SOL as a proxy for consumer applications is quite clear, but the development of derivatives markets often reflects true institutional intentions more accurately than spot markets. Liquidity and trading volume in futures, options, and perpetual contracts can better reveal the real attitude of institutions. From this perspective, the market may have truly bottomed out. The next step depends on the pace of actions by those traditional big banks.