Bitcoin recent trend analysis and trading strategy for January 1, 2026 (New Year's Day)

In the past two days, Bitcoin has shown a narrow range of oscillation and decline. After multiple failed attempts to break through the $90,000 level, it has been trading within the $87,000-$89,500 range, currently oscillating around $88,000. The daily chart is under the pressure of the EMA30 moving average, with the MACD maintaining a death cross, indicating a clear long-term bearish trend. However, buying interest around $87,000 is gradually strengthening, and the RSI shows weakening downward momentum, suggesting a short-term rebound demand. Year-end liquidity is thin, combined with $23.7 billion in options expiring, which may amplify price volatility. Institutional actions are diverging: MicroStrategy continues to increase holdings, while ETF funds are experiencing short-term outflows.

January 1 Core Trading Strategy

1. Focus on Range Trading: Resistance is centered around $88,800-$90,000. Avoid high positions before a volume breakout; support levels are at $86,000-$86,500. If volume shrinks and the price stabilizes, consider light short-term positions for a rebound. If broken, cut losses decisively to avoid further decline below $85,000.

2. Strict Position Control: Liquidity remains thin during the New Year holiday. Keep individual positions below 10%, avoid impulsive chasing or panic selling, and mitigate risks of gap openings and widening spreads.

3. Long-term Positioning: If the price retraces to the strong support zone of $85,000-$86,000, consider building positions gradually based on long-term positive factors such as institutional accumulation and RWA market expansion.

4. Trading Recommendations
- Long Entry Trigger: Breakthrough of $89,000; pursue long positions with a small size at $88,500, provided the average volume in the last 24 hours is at least 1.5 times higher.
- Short Exit/Reduce: Drop below $87,000; reduce positions to hedge risk at $87,500, first decreasing volume, then deep withdrawal on increased volume.
- Strong Support Bottom Fishing: Touching $86,500; lightly bottom-fish at $86,000, re-enter after volume shrinks and stabilizes.