Joby Aviation's Path to 10x Returns: Why This eVTOL Stock Could Transform Your Net Worth

The Market Opportunity That’s Just Getting Started

The electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) market represents one of aviation’s most transformative opportunities. Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) is positioned at the forefront of this emerging sector, though its journey hasn’t been smooth. After going public via SPAC merger at $10.62 per share four years ago, the stock now trades around $13—hardly the explosive growth early backers anticipated. Yet industry analysts suggest this could be just the beginning of a much larger wealth creation story.

Why Joby’s Technology Stands Out

The competitive landscape reveals why Joby’s engineering approach matters. Its S4 aircraft carries one pilot and four passengers, achieving up to 150 miles per range on a single charge with a maximum speed of 200 mph. More impressively, Joby is developing a hydrogen-powered variant capable of traveling five times farther while charging faster.

Compare this to competitor Archer Aviation’s Midnight: it carries the same passenger count but maxes out at 100 miles per charge and 150 mph speed. The difference lies in propulsion design. Joby’s tilt-rotor technology switches between lifting and cruising modes for superior energy efficiency. Archer’s dual-propeller system carries additional weight and consumes more energy—a structural disadvantage that compounds over time.

Real-world validation backs these specs. Joby operates a five-aircraft test fleet and has already delivered two aircraft under a $131 million U.S. Air Force contract. The company deployed a test aircraft to Dubai and expanded flight testing across the UAE, South Korea, and Japan.

Strategic Partnerships and Acquisition Spree

Joby’s backing from Toyota and Delta Air Lines signals serious industry confidence. The acquisitions of Uber’s Elevate division (2020) and Blade’s helicopter service (2025) accelerate its path to market dominance. These moves aren’t financial plays—they’re infrastructure buildouts for air taxi networks. Uber plans integrating Joby’s S4 flights into its main app, while Delta is partnering with Uber and Joby to launch air taxi routes in New York and Los Angeles, pending FAA approval.

The 2026 Inflection Point

Commercial reality could arrive sooner than skeptics expect. The FAA is anticipated to grant full approval for U.S. commercial flights in 2026, the same year Joby aims to launch Dubai’s first air taxi service. Analyst projections suggest revenue could hit $40 million in 2025, jump to $113 million in 2026, and reach $207 million by 2027.

At a $12.7 billion market cap, Joby appears expensive at 61 times 2027 projected sales. But scale dramatically changes the math. Eve Air Mobility projects 30,000 eVTOLs will carry 3 billion passengers annually by 2045—assuming eVTOLs replace helicopters for short-range transit.

If Joby captures one-third market share and sells 10,000 aircraft yearly at roughly $1.3 million per unit, annual revenue could reach $13 billion. Even accounting for future price compression to $1 million per eVTOL, that still yields $10 billion in yearly revenue. At a modest 13x sales multiple, a $130 billion market cap would represent a 10x return on today’s valuation. Dominating the market could push returns substantially higher.

The Reality Check

Joby didn’t deliver on early promises. Its 2024 revenue totaled just $136,000 from an Air Force contract, against a projected $131 million. The $608 million net loss reflects the company’s pre-commercialization stage. This wasn’t acceptable to early investors expecting faster progress.

Yet the fundamental thesis remains intact: if eVTOLs genuinely replace short-range helicopter routes over the next 20 years, Joby’s first-mover advantage in aircraft design, certification progress, and market infrastructure could generate generational wealth for patient investors willing to accept near-term volatility.

The stock is speculative today, but the technological edge and partnership ecosystem make it worth monitoring closely as 2026 approaches.