Soybean Market Softens on Managed Money Retreat

defi_detective · 2025-12-31T14:26:21+00:00

U.S. soybean futures faced declines as traders reduced long positions, despite strong export sales. Soy meal futures rose, while soy oil fell. Market caution persists amidst mixed demand signals and a reassessment of bullish positions.

defi_detective

2025-12-31 14:26:21

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U.S. soybean futures ended the week with declining momentum, as financial players trimmed their long positions considerably. The Dec contracts showed weakness across the board, with front-month delivery months trading 1 to 2 cents lower. The national average cash soybean price fell 3 cents to settle at $9.80 3/4, reflecting underlying pressure in the physical market.

Export Sales Drive Mixed Signals

USDA Export Sales reporting painted a more optimistic picture for demand. Weekly soybean sales reached 2.396 million metric tons during the December 11 reporting period, landing near the midpoint of trade expectations (1.8-2.9 MMT range). This marked the strongest performance in over 12 months, posting a 68.3% increase compared to the same week a year prior. China remained the dominant buyer, accounting for 1.38 MMT of that week’s sales, bringing cumulative known sales to the country to 6.2 MMT through recent daily transactions.

Byproduct Markets Show Divergence

Soy meal futures advanced sharply, gaining $1.10 to $2.50 during the session, outperforming the broader complex. Conversely, soy oil futures retreated, sliding 25 to 39 points lower as demand concerns weighed on the energy-linked commodity.

Soy meal export sales surpassed analyst expectations at 616,453 MT, exceeding the 275,000-550,000 MT estimate range. Soy oil sales came in at 8,660 MT, representing the lower end of the 5,000-24,000 MT projection.

Positioning Shift Signals Caution

Commitment of Traders data revealed managed money reducing long exposure by 32,560 contracts in the week ending December 16, bringing total net long positioning to 147,778 contracts. This systematic reduction suggests market participants are reassessing their bullish stance.

Contract Settlement Summary

Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.51 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents. Nearby Cash settled at $9.80 3/4, down 3 cents. Mar 26 Soybeans finished at $10.63 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents. May 26 Soybeans closed at $10.74 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents.

The mixed performance—with solid export demand offset by speculative fund exits—leaves soybeans in a holding pattern as traders await fresh directional signals.

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