US Soybean Oil Prices Slip as Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Broader Commodity Complex

ser_we_are_early · 2025-12-31T14:44:22+00:00

The soybean market weakened due to supply concerns and geopolitical tensions, with a notable decline in export shipments. Soybeans, soymeal, and futures fell, while soybean oil saw a slight recovery amid crude oil's bounce.

ser_we_are_early

2025-12-31 14:44:22

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The soybean complex experienced notable weakness on Monday, with market participants grappling with a combination of supply concerns and international tensions. Front-month soybeans declined 9 to 10 cents, while the national average cash bean price retreated 8 cents to settle at $9.80 3/4. Soymeal futures dropped $2.50 to $4.90 per ton, indicating broad-based pressure across soy derivatives. US soybean oil prices, however, managed a modest recovery, gaining 6 to 10 points throughout the session as crude oil rebounded from earlier weakness.

Export Data Reveals Sharp Year-Over-Year Decline

The Monday morning Export Inspections report painted a concerning picture for American soybean exporters. Shipments for the week ending December 25 totaled 750,312 MT (27.57 mbu), representing a 19.3% decrease from the prior week and a significant 54.4% drop compared to the same week in the previous year. China emerged as the largest buyer with 135,417 MT, while Egypt received 127,017 MT and Vietnam took delivery of 89,227 MT.

This weakness extended throughout the broader marketing year. Year-to-date soybean shipments now stand at 15.396 MMT (565.71 mbu), tracking 46.3% below the corresponding period last year. The USDA did report a private export sale of 100,000 MT destined for Egypt, offering modest support to sentiment.

Geopolitical Headwinds and Market Dynamics

Recent military drills conducted by China near Taiwan appear to have amplified market uncertainties, with some analysts attributing downward pressure on soybean prices to escalating US-China tensions. This backdrop of geopolitical concerns seems to have spilled over into commodity valuations more broadly, even as US soybean oil prices demonstrated some resilience through crude oil’s intraday bounce.

Futures Settlement Summary

January 26 soybeans closed at $10.49 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents from the previous session. Nearby cash beans finished at $9.80 3/4, off 8 cents. March 26 soybeans declined 9 cents to $10.63 1/2, while May 26 soybeans fell 9 cents to close at $10.75 1/4, reflecting consistent weakness across the forward curve.

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