Can Plug Power stocks turn around? Is the rebound genuine based on a 99% decline

The Story Behind the Stock Price Collapse

Plug Power (NASDAQ: PLUG) has seen its stock price drop by 99% from its all-time high, a staggering figure. From a peak near $1,500 in 2021 to now, this hydrogen fuel cell and electrolyzer manufacturer has endured years of continuous losses, significant cash outflows, and repeated dilution of shareholder equity.

But this story may be turning a corner. Since the beginning of this year, PLUG’s stock price has rebounded by 87%, and the trend has begun to stabilize, supported by tangible business improvements.

Why It’s Not Fully “Dead” Yet"

Improved cash flow is a key signal

The recently released Q3 earnings report surprised the market. Plug Power reported revenue of $177 million and a loss of $0.12 per share, both surpassing Wall Street expectations. More importantly, the company’s operating cash flow improved by nearly 53% quarter-over-quarter, with cash burn rate decreasing from higher levels to about $90 million in Q3.

This improvement is not coincidental—enhanced execution, optimized pricing strategies, and better working capital management all played a role.

Electrolyzer business begins to shine

The company’s GenEco electrolyzer business has become a new growth engine. Electrolyzers produce hydrogen and oxygen through water electrolysis, a critical technology for the green hydrogen industry.

In Q3, GenEco’s revenue jumped 46% quarter-over-quarter to $65 million. Management expects the electrolyzer business to reach approximately $200 million in revenue by 2025, a 33% increase over 2024. Even more enticing, there are ongoing projects totaling 230 MW in North America, Australia, and Europe.

But Risks Are Not Insignificant

Profitability target is challenging

Plug Power has set a flag to achieve gross profit margin without losses by the end of 2025. However, this goal requires three conditions to be met simultaneously: increased equipment sales, continued expansion of service gross margins, and further reduction in hydrogen fuel costs. Missing any one of these could jeopardize the entire plan.

Project implementation risks remain

The company has an electrolyzer project pipeline valued at $8 billion. While this sounds substantial, the reality is that many projects have not yet reached the final investment decision stage. This means revenue conversion remains highly uncertain.

Manufacturing still in “debugging” phase

The company’s manufacturing facilities have experienced issues—this is no small matter, as capacity and quality control are vital for hardware companies’ survival.

Financing risks

Management hopes to monetize electricity rights in places like New York through partnerships with U.S. data center developers, aiming to raise $275 million in liquidity. However, this funding has not yet materialized, and financing risks persist.

To Buy or Not Now?

In simple terms: Plug Power is not a dying company on the brink of bankruptcy, but it’s also far from confirming a reversal. The signs of improvement are real, but whether they can be sustained remains to be seen.

For investors, a more prudent approach might be to continue observing, tracking quarterly progress, and seeing if indicators like cash flow improvement, electrolyzer growth, and gross margin expansion can be maintained. Once these metrics show positive trends for several consecutive quarters, it may be safer to consider entering.

After all, the story of falling from $1,500 to a few dollars and then slowly climbing back takes time and data to prove.