Bean Market Momentum: What The Numbers Tell Us

The soybean complex opened the holiday week on a constructive note, with futures climbing between 4 and 5½ cents per bushel. The underlying cash market reflected this strength, with cmdtyView’s national average [Cash Bean]( price reaching $9.83¾, up 4¼ cents. [Soymeal]( contracts extended gains from 50 cents to a full dollar higher, while [Soy Oil]( futures surged 58 to 67 points, benefiting from firmer crude oil valuations that provided price support.

Trade Flow Signals and Export Momentum

Beijing’s purchasing activity this morning revealed 396,000 MT of soybean commitments split across two crop years—330,000 MT allocated for the 2025/26 season and 66,000 MT for 2026/27. This purchase signals ongoing demand despite competitive global supply conditions.

Weekly shipment data painted a more nuanced picture. The USDA logged 870,199 MT (31.97 mbu) in exports during the seven days ending December 18. While this represented a 7.4% increase from the prior week, it fell substantially—down 51%—compared to the identical week in 2024. China absorbed the lion’s share at 386,010 MT, with Mexico receiving 177,758 MT and Germany taking 68,599 MT.

The marketing year scorecard through December 1 revealed headwinds in the export pipeline. Year-to-date exports for 2025/26 reached just 14.584 MMT (535.97 mbu) since the September 1 start date, representing a significant 46% decline versus the comparable prior-year window. These MMT scores underscore the challenging competitive landscape shaping current season dynamics.

Sales Bookings and Forward Expectations

Export sales reportage from this morning documented 1.55 MMT of soybean contracts written during the week of December 4, landing squarely in the middle of the 0.8-2 MMT analyst consensus band. This booking volume marked the second-largest weekly total for the current marketing year and outpaced last year’s comparable week by 32.2%.

Meal contract activity, however, showed more caution. Weekly bookings totaled 275,487 MT, positioned at the lower boundary of the 200,000-500,000 MT estimated range. Bean oil sales lagged expectations even more dramatically—just 1,213 MT versus the 5,000-25,000 MT consensus forecast. This divergence in commodity strength across the complex warrants monitoring as the season progresses.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s Export Sales report releasing Tuesday morning will shed light on the December 11 week, with analysts anticipating 1.8-2.9 MMT in soybean sales. Meal contracts are projected to range from 275,000-550,000 MT, while bean oil bookings are estimated between 5,000-24,000 MT.

Production Outlooks and Regional Trade Patterns

Supply-side developments from South America added context to global dynamics. AgRural lifted its Brazilian crop estimate to 180.4 MMT, representing a 1.9 MMT upward revision from previous guidance. This adjustment supports the notion of adequate global supply availability.

Chinese import patterns in November illuminated the regional trade structure. The Middle Kingdom sourced 5.85 MMT from Brazil and 1.78 MMT from Argentina, with these two suppliers commanding 93.9% of monthly volume. This concentration underscores the structural importance of South American production to Asian consumption patterns.

Futures Settlement Recap

Contract closings reflected the day’s constructive undertone. [Jan 26 Soybeans]( settled at $10.53¼, advancing 4 cents, while [Nearby Cash]( traded at $9.83¾, up 4¼ cents. Deferred months showed consistent strength with [Mar 26 Soybeans]( closing at $10.65, up 5½ cents, [May 26 Soybeans]( finishing at $10.75½, gaining 5 cents.

The combination of steady demand signals, supportive geopolitical supply realities, and near-term technical positivity suggests the bean complex may sustain current momentum heading into year-end trading. However, the substantial year-over-year export declines warrant close attention as a potential limiting factor to sustained rallies.