Today (January 1, 2026) is the United States New Year's Day federal holiday. The Federal Reserve and other financial institutions are closed and have not issued any major monetary policy news or statements. The Federal Reserve's recent activities mainly focus on December 2025, including a 25 basis point rate cut at the December policy meeting (the federal funds rate target range lowered to 3.50%-3.75%) and the release of related meeting minutes.

Summary of the latest Federal Reserve developments (as of the end of 2025):
• Interest rate path: The Federal Reserve has cut rates multiple times in 2025 but remains cautious about rate cuts in 2026. The dot plot indicates only one rate cut is expected in 2026 (median forecast), with some market bets on two cuts. The probability of holding rates steady at the January meeting is relatively high (about 80-85%).
• Next meeting: The first FOMC meeting of 2026 will be held on January 27-28, during which further rate adjustments will be discussed.
• Other announcements: The Federal Reserve has published the payment service pricing effective in 2026 (including check clearing, ACH transfers, etc.), and the asset threshold adjustments for the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA). These are routine annual updates unrelated to monetary policy.
• Economic outlook: There are differing views within the Federal Reserve on economic growth, inflation, and employment in 2026. Economic growth is expected to accelerate, but inflationary pressures may persist, influenced by tariffs and other factors.