Hard-earned Experience in Crypto: Drop Predictions, Follow the Money, Survive Long-Term

I’m not a “lucky” eater. Everything I have today was paid for with real tuition fees.
In the early years of entering crypto, I was like most: staying up all night watching K-line, grinding through whitepapers, following KOL calls, MACD – RSI – Bollinger charts by heart. But the results are all too familiar:
👉 Paper profits during bull runs
👉 A correction wave wipes everything out
👉 Ultimately, I realized a painful truth: complexity does not equal efficiency.
Only when I completely abandoned the “market prediction” mindset and built a simple – disciplined – contrarian system did my account truly grow sustainably.
In the past three months, I increased my account from 8,000U to over 100,000U, with a profit-taking rate of over 85%. Below is my core thinking, explained in the simplest language.
Step 1: Forget K-Line, Only Follow Smart Money Flow
My biggest mistake before was believing: as long as I was good at technical analysis, I would win. Later, I understood:
Price is the result, and the flow of money is the cause.
Currently, I focus on just 3 things every day:

1. Monitoring On-Chain Transactions of Whales
   If a large coin consistently shows big wallets accumulating, even when the price is sideways or slightly declining, I am ready to buy in parts.
   Very simple tools: blockchain explorers, no need for any advanced tricks.
2. Observing In/Out Flow of Funds on Exchanges
   Many coins are withdrawn from exchanges to cold wallets → a sign that large holders don’t want to sell.
   Price rises but coins are heavily deposited back onto exchanges → extremely dangerous, easy to dump.
3. Turning Off All Noise Groups
   99% of crypto groups are emotional contagion, not information.
   Real valuable information is never spammed publicly.
   My principle:
   Price drops are not scary. What’s scary is smart money withdrawing.
   As long as core wallets are still accumulating, I am willing to buy gradually, not trying to catch the bottom.
   Step 2: Diversify Capital, Never “All In”
   I paid a very high price for the idea of “betting everything on one trade.” Once, in just 10 minutes, a FOMO move caused me to lose 3,000 USD.
   Since then, I apply strict discipline:
   Always divide each trade into 3 parts of capital
   Trade 1 – 30% of capital:
   Test the trend, stop-loss at 2%. If wrong, cut immediately, no regrets.
   Trade 2 – 40% of capital:
   Enter only when the trend is confirmed. Move stop-loss to break-even.
   Trade 3 – 30% of capital:
   Let profits run. When the price retraces 10% from the peak, automatically take profit.
   Two Unbreakable Rules:
   Never add money when losing.
   Only increase position when in profit.
   90% of account burnouts in crypto are not caused by the market but by poor capital management.
   Step 3: Contrarian Approach, Profit from Market Emotions
   Crypto is an extremely emotional market – and that creates opportunities.
   Buy During Market Panic
   When social media is flooded with bad news, everyone says “crash to zero,” but often that’s a short-term bottom.
   I don’t buy out of hope; I buy because on-chain data shows long-term holders are not selling.
   Sell During FOMO
   When a coin is overly hyped, trending top searches, KOLs all bragging about profits → I start to gradually take profits.
   Risks arise during price increases.
   Opportunities appear during declines.
   Major crashes in history all showed early signs of money flow. Those who only listen to stories and ignore data will pay the price.
   What I’ve Learned After Many Years of Surviving
   Don’t trust your psychology too much:
   I never trade when sleep-deprived, stressed, or drinking. Performance clearly drops.
   Leverage isn’t bad, but it can be deadly:
   I rarely use more than 3x, and only trade with the trend.
   Slow is Fast:
   DCA BTC/ETH regularly, accumulate in bear markets, gradually sell in bull markets – the dumbest but most sustainable way.
   Conclusion
   Crypto has no saints, only disciplined survivors. Don’t dream of getting rich overnight. Use simple methods, repeat high-probability actions, and let time work in your favor.
   Learn, understand the market’s essence, manage risks – that’s your greatest asset in crypto.