According to the latest data from CME "Federal Reserve Watch":

The market believes there is only a 14.9% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in January; meanwhile, the probability of holding rates steady is as high as 85.1%.

In plain language: stop dreaming, a rate cut in January is basically impossible. The market's main expectation, like your wallet, is frozen solid.

What does this mean for the crypto world?
1. Short-term liquidity expectations are dashed: At the beginning of the year, some hoped for a "good start" and expected the central bank to loosen policy. Now, this near-term expectation has been almost completely shattered, removing an important pillar of short-term market enthusiasm. Large whales will be more inclined to wait and see rather than rush into action.
2. The narrative of "high interest rate suppression" continues: As long as the rate cut remains just a possibility, the mantra of "high interest rates suppress risk assets" will persist. This creates ongoing pressure for Bitcoin, which relies on loose liquidity.
3. The real game is yet to come: Everyone's focus must shift from January to March and beyond. The next meeting will be the true battleground for bulls and bears.

Summary:
The dream of a rate cut in January can be completely awakened. The market will enter a waiting period, observing for the next clear signal. Until the path of actual rate cuts becomes clear, don't expect violent surges; more likely, it will be structural oscillations and chip exchanges. #我的2026第一条帖