The market is in a "tug-of-war" state: big players are quietly accumulating, but leverage traders dare not jump in, and the rebound is all just a paper tiger?

What does this tug-of-war state indicate? The market now is like a car: the chassis of spot holdings (long-term holders) is very stable, but the fuel for the engine (certain leverage funds) is insufficient. Therefore, the market tends to "wobble," but it’s hard to sustain a breakout rally. Recently, there has been a trend of increasing open interest, which can be seen as some funds tentatively "adding fuel," but whether this fuel is enough remains to be seen.

First, look at the daily chart of Bitcoin. It is currently in a converging consolidation pattern with a top above and a bottom below. Due to the lack of high leverage support, any breakout in either direction will be quite tangled. Key resistance zone above: 88,970-90,000. This area is not only the recent high point of the consolidation but also the upper Bollinger band on the daily chart and a zone of previous concentrated chips. In the current environment of low sentiment and low leverage, a rebound to this level is very likely to encounter selling pressure that prevents further rise, making it a technically high-altitude zone worth noting. Support zone below: 87,350-86,750. If the price falls back from the resistance zone, this will be the first test of short-term buying strength.

Looking at the four-hour chart, it more clearly reflects the market’s hesitation. The price is oscillating within a small range, with moving averages converging.

Intraday trading suggestions:
Short near 89,000-90,000, target 87,300-86,700

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