Gold Price Predictions 2025-2026: Is the Uptrend Continuing or Is a Correction Coming?

Gold Achieves a New Record in 2025

This year has witnessed a dramatic success story for gold. Starting from around $2,798 in January and rising almost nonstop, it reached its historic peak at $4,381 per ounce in mid-October. This means gains exceeding 50% in less than a year—an exceptional performance even by safe-haven standards.

Why this astonishing rise? First, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve reduced the appeal of the US dollar. Second, global central banks have continued to buy heavily—constantly seeking safe assets. Third, geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty have renewed confidence in gold as a hedge against crises.

What do experts expect for gold in 2026?

Forecasts for 2026 range from cautious to reasonably optimistic. Here’s what leading market analysts say:

J.P. Morgan: Average $5,000 by 2026, with an expectation of $4,900 in the last quarter.

Goldman Sachs: Possibility of reaching $4,000 by mid-2026, with an optimistic scenario of $4,900 by year-end.

Morgan Stanley: $4,500 by mid-2026, supported by strong demand from investment funds and central banks.

Standard Chartered: Forecasts of $4,300 by the end of 2025, and $4,500 within 12 months.

Bank of America: Target price of $4,000 in Q3 2026.

HSBC: Around $5,000 by 2026.

ANZ: $4,400 by the end of 2025, and $4,600 by mid-2026.

The key point? No one expects a sharp decline. The only difference is the degree of upward movement.

What really drives gold prices?

Inflation – The silent discount on your money

When inflation rises, your currency loses value. Investors know this, so they rush toward gold. In September 2025, inflation was around 3% annually—above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This means gold is not a luxury but a necessity to protect your wealth.

Practical example: in 2021-2022, when inflation surged to multi-decade highs, everyone flocked to gold, which soared strongly.

US dollar – The inverse relationship

Weak dollar = strong gold. This simple but effective equation. When the US dollar weakens, gold becomes cheaper for foreign buyers, increasing demand.

In 2020, when the US launched massive stimulus packages due to COVID-19, the dollar collapsed. The result? Gold jumped to $2,075 per ounce for the first time in history.

Central bank policies – The key player

Central banks hold over 50,000 tons of gold worldwide. Their decisions to buy or sell make a real difference.

Recent years have seen an unprecedented wave of purchases by central banks in emerging markets. This ongoing demand supports prices from below.

Safe haven – Fear drives prices up

Financial crises, geopolitical conflicts, and economic collapses—all send people toward gold. In 2020, with stock markets crashing due to COVID-19, gold rose while everything else fell. This is true insurance.

Demand via Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)

The advent of gold ETFs changed the game. Now anyone can buy gold without physically owning it. Flows into these funds translate directly into real demand.

At the start of COVID-19 in 2020, investors rushed into funds like SPDR Gold Shares. Fund holdings increased by over 700 tons in the initial months.

Jewelry and industry – Continuous demand

India and China consume huge quantities of gold for jewelry. Additionally, smartphones and medical devices require gold. This steady physical demand forms a stable price base.

Mine supply – The narrow bottleneck

Annual mine production accounts for only a small part of the global stock. But any shortage in supply amid strong demand pushes prices higher. Disruptions in supply chains and environmental restrictions can have a tangible impact.

How to build a gold investment strategy?

The right start: Learn before investing

Don’t rush. Read about the factors that move prices—inflation, interest rates, monetary policies, geopolitical news. Following gold forecasts from trusted sources gives you a broader picture before making any decision.

Set clear goals

Do you want to protect your savings from inflation? Diversify your portfolio? Prepare for retirement? Or speculate on short-term fluctuations? Your goal determines your strategy.

Assess your risk tolerance

Gold is relatively safe, but its prices fluctuate. Decide how much decline you can psychologically and financially tolerate. Will you hold for (long-term) or for (short-term)?

Don’t keep all your money in savings accounts

Interest on savings accounts is usually less than inflation. You gradually lose your purchasing power. Over time, gold has proven to preserve the real value of money.

Manage your portfolio wisely

Monitor your asset allocation. If gold’s value rises excessively, rebalance. Use specialized apps and websites to track prices moment by moment. Periodically evaluate performance.

Discipline precedes profits

Daily fluctuations may tempt you to emotional decisions. Don’t do it. A winning strategy requires patience and adherence to your original plan.

Different options for investing in gold

Short-term investing – Speculating on fluctuations

How? Exploit daily or weekly price movements via futures, CFDs, or ETFs.

Advantages:

• Quick profits during high volatility
• Hedge against short-term risks
• High flexibility in entry and exit

Risks:

• Difficult timing
• Requires daily monitoring and technical analysis
• Trading costs: fees, spreads, rollover charges

Gold CFDs – The flexible choice

Allows you to speculate on gold prices without owning the physical metal. You can profit from both rises and falls. Profit/loss = difference between entry and exit price.

Simple mechanism:

• Expect price rise? Open buy
• Expect price fall? Open sell
• When your prediction materializes, close the position and keep the difference as profit

Real advantages:

• Easy access via online platforms
• No expiry date
• Same technical analysis tools used by professionals
• Leverage amplifies your capital

Critical note: Leverage multiplies both profits and losses. A 1:100 leverage means every $100 of your capital exposes you to $10,000 of exposure. Profits can be large, but so can losses.

Practical example: Deposit $1,000 and use 1:100 leverage. Your total exposure becomes $100,000. At a gold price of $3,700:

• If it rises to $3,710, you earn $1,000 (100% of your capital)
• If it drops to $3,690, you lose $1,000 (100% of your capital)

Long-term investing – Preserving wealth

How? Buy gold bars or coins, or gold-backed funds.

Advantages:

• Safe haven during crises
• Maintains purchasing power against inflation
• Less volatile than trading

Disadvantages:

• Slower, less exciting returns
• No income (no dividends or interest)
• Storage and insurance costs for physical gold

Suitable for: Investors seeking peace of mind and capital protection, not quick profits.

Quick comparison

Risks that could disrupt the game in 2026

Even with positive outlooks, threats exist:

1. Fed tightening again – Any return to rate hikes will kill gold’s appeal, as it yields no interest.

2. Geopolitical peace – If major conflicts end definitively, safe-haven demand may decline.

3. Mass exit from funds – If investors rapidly close positions, it could pressure prices.

4. Rising dollar – If the US dollar strengthens again, gold may fall.

What’s the next step?

Gold forecasts for 2025-2026 point to strong upcoming years. The expected range is $4,000 - $5,000 per ounce. But forecasts are not guarantees.

Before investing:

• Choose the strategy that fits your goals (short or long-term)
• Fully understand the risks before speculating
• Start with small amounts to get familiar with the market
• Never put all your money in gold—diversify always

Gold is not a quick-rich scheme, but an effective tool to protect your wealth from inflation and uncertainty. Success requires patience and a clear strategy, not just hopes pinned on gold price forecasts.