HTX DeepThink: At the start of the new year, employment data remains a key variable, and the crypto market is still in a wait-and-see period

Deep Tide TechFlow News, January 05, HTX DeepThink column author and HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) pointed out that US employment and economic data are once again becoming the core focus of market attention, as they will directly influence when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again. The December Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that some officials are cautious about continuing rapid rate cuts; meanwhile, US Q3 GDP significantly exceeded expectations, which has largely ruled out the possibility of a rate cut in January. Currently, interest rate futures indicate that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March is close to 50%, with at least two rate cuts expected for the year.

However, this judgment is based on the premise that the employment market does not deteriorate significantly. If employment data continues to weaken in the coming weeks, expectations for rate cuts may be brought forward. Market focus will be on the December non-farm payrolls data released this Friday, especially whether the November data shows a significant downward revision. Due to previous survey sample limitations, November data may be subject to substantial revisions, which is particularly critical for market judgment. Before the non-farm payrolls are announced, the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI will also provide important references for economic trends and inflation pressures.

For the crypto market, it is not the stage for “making directional bets” at the moment. Bitcoin is oscillating at high levels, showing neither a clear bearish trend nor upward breakout momentum, mainly reflecting year-end liquidity decline and funds choosing to wait and see. From the derivatives market perspective, implied volatility in options continues to decline, indicating that the market expects short-term volatility to remain limited; meanwhile, put options still carry some premium, suggesting that funds are still hedging against potential downside risks rather than actively betting on an upward move. This shows that the market has not formed a consensus expectation but is waiting for macro signals to confirm the direction. If non-farm payrolls weaken significantly, expectations for rate cuts will strengthen, potentially reactivating Bitcoin’s upward logic; conversely, if data remains strong, the trend is likely to continue oscillating.

Looking ahead to the next week, controlling positions and reducing leverage will be more reasonable strategies. In a low-volatility environment, the market is more likely to digest macro information through neutral or defensive options structures rather than quickly forming a consensus directional expectation. From a price structure perspective, around $80,000 remains an important support zone for Bitcoin, but whether a trend-significant market can develop still depends on whether employment data and policy expectations can provide clearer directional signals.