#我的2026第一条帖 Bitcoin, Ethereum Fluctuations: Will the Uptrend Continue or Retrace?

On the macro news front, recent global liquidity easing expectations have continued to heat up, coupled with multiple institutions disclosing increased crypto asset holdings, gradually improving market sentiment and providing strong support for a cryptocurrency rebound. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin and Ethereum successfully broke through previous consolidation ranges, without significant retracement or correction. Throughout the weekend, Bitcoin maintained a stable high-range oscillation between 91,000 and 91,600, while Ethereum ranged sideways between 3,120 and 3,160 to build momentum. This morning, both major coins experienced a slight rebound and upward movement.
1. Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently dominated by bulls, but risks are emerging. After breaking through the consolidation zone, Bitcoin demonstrated strong bullish resilience, remaining steady within the 91,000–91,600 range over the weekend without significant pullbacks. This morning, the price continued its strength, slightly rebounding and breaking above the 92,000 level, further consolidating the short-term upward trend.
From a technical perspective, the daily candlestick shows a small consecutive positive pattern, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages forming a golden cross (simply put, short-term moving averages crossing above long-term ones, a clear bullish signal), and continuing upward. The bullish pattern is clear. However, it is important to note that the RSI indicators on the 4-hour and hourly charts are approaching overbought levels, which often precede a price correction; additionally, current prices are near previous resistance zones, and upward movements may encounter selling pressure.
Key levels to watch include short-term resistance at 93,000 and 94,000; short-term support has moved up to 90,800, with the core defense level still at the 90,000 mark. Breaking below this level could directly impact the short-term trend. Ethereum’s movement is synchronized with Bitcoin; after consolidating at high levels, it started rebounding this morning, but its upward momentum is noticeably weaker. The technical performance is impressive, with the daily moving average system forming a bottom golden cross, providing solid support; the 4-hour moving averages are diverging upward with good volume, indicating potential for further gains in the short term. However, similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum is also approaching previous resistance zones, and the strength of today’s rebound will be critical for future movements. Regarding specific levels, initial resistance is at 3,200; a breakout could lead to further focus on 3,250. Short-term support is at 3,100–3,080, with the key defense at the 3,000 mark. A break below this could likely trigger further correction.
2. Market Summary and Trading Outlook
Overall, the current cryptocurrency market is driven by dual positive factors: macro easing expectations and institutional capital support. Coupled with bullish technical signals, the short-term trend remains strong. However, it is important to note that both Bitcoin and Ethereum are approaching resistance zones and face overbought risks, so blindly chasing highs is not advisable. It is recommended to adopt a wait-and-see approach, waiting for confirmed resistance breakthroughs or stabilization after a correction before considering entry. For existing holders, closely monitor key support levels (Bitcoin at 90,000; Ethereum at 3,000). If these levels are effectively broken, risk should be promptly avoided. Non-holders should refrain from rushing into the market and patiently wait for better opportunities. Future market developments will continue to depend heavily on changes in global liquidity and institutional fund movements, which will remain the main drivers of medium- and long-term market trends.