#我的2026第一条帖 Bitcoin hits a new high of $97,899! Ethereum fluctuates around $3,330. Is it a good time to buy the dip or sell at the top on January 15?

In-depth technical analysis: oscillations and breakthroughs under multi-timeframe resonance

(1) Bitcoin: High-level consolidation with a ladder-like upward trend. A breakout requires volume confirmation. On the daily chart, Bitcoin shows a staircase pattern with a bullish candle with upper and lower shadows on January 14, confirming a breakout of the key resistance zone at $95,000. The current price remains stable above the EMA30 ($93,006), with EMA7 and EMA30 maintaining a golden cross. The 120-day moving average ($91,126) provides solid long-term support. The MACD indicator continues to expand, indicating a strong medium-term bullish trend. The 4-hour chart shows a high-level oscillation structure, with the price reaching a high of $97,899 after breaking previous highs, then slightly retreating to around $96,800. Technical indicators show that DIF and DEA remain in a bullish alignment, but the MACD histogram is shrinking, suggesting short-term bullish momentum is waning. Key resistance is concentrated in the $97,800–$98,000 range, which is both a previous high and an important psychological level, with noticeable selling pressure. Support levels include immediate support at $96,000, with further support at $95,000 and $93,400—the latter coinciding with EMA30 and representing a strong support zone. In the short term, Bitcoin is in a “confirmation stage after breakout.” If it can stabilize above $96,000 with volume support, it may attempt to challenge the $98,000 resistance again. If it falls below $95,000, a correction to $93,400 or even EMA30 is possible.
(2) Ethereum: Mainly range-bound with key resistance awaiting a breakout. On the daily chart, Ethereum is currently in a balanced state between bulls and bears, fluctuating around $3,300. Although temporarily above short-term moving averages, it remains constrained by the dense resistance zone formed by the 50-day ($3,128), 100-day ($3,292), and 200-day ($3,342) moving averages. Multiple tests of this zone have failed to break through, indicating heavy selling pressure above. The RSI is at 51.0, in the neutral zone, and the MACD is also neutral, not indicating a clear trend. This suggests that buying and selling forces are relatively balanced. On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum maintains a “higher lows” short-term upward structure, rebounding from support at $3,280 to around $3,402, currently oscillating near $3,330. Key resistance is in the $3,390–$3,400 range, coinciding with recent rebound highs and Fibonacci retracement levels. Further resistance is at $3,450, the previous high of the range. Support levels include immediate support at $3,300, with a recent low at $3,280, and a significant structural support at $3,100, overlapping with the upper boundary of the previous consolidation zone. Technical patterns show Ethereum is in a “consolidation and accumulation phase.” The short-term trend depends on whether it can break through $3,400. A successful breakout with increased volume could open the way to $3,450. Failure to break through may lead to a retest of the $3,300–$3,280 support zone, with a further decline toward $3,100 if support at $3,280 is broken.