Gold Price Analysis: Technical Test Nears Critical Zone Amid Dollar War – January 8, 2026

Technical Picture: Organized Decline or the Beginning of a Deeper Correction?

Gold entered the January 8, 2026 session with a calculated downward move after failing to settle above the 4,491.95 USD level, indicating a clear transition from the accumulation phase to the re-evaluation phase. The decline that brought the price close to 4,420 USD reflects the exit of organized speculative liquidity rather than a sharp technical breakdown, which is typical behavior when short-term selling exhausts the accumulated bullish momentum.

On the two-hour chart, the market has entered what is known as an “Active Pullback” (Active Pullback), where the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated from overbought levels to the neutral zone (52-48), a healthy level that does not yet indicate extreme selling pressure. The MACD has begun to turn downward with a negative crossover above zero, confirming a shift in momentum from buildup to short-term depletion.

Critical technical levels to watch:

• First support: 4,370 USD
• Second support: 4,290 USD
• Key support: 4,220 USD
• Short-term resistance: 4,500 USD
• Medium resistance: 4,570 USD
• Higher resistance: 4,640 USD

Economic Factors: The Triple Pressure on Prices

1. Rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index: Inevitable Automated Pressure

A large part of today’s price pressure is due to a purely technical mechanism: the annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM). This process requires fund managers linked to the index to reduce the relative weights of assets that have experienced strong gains (such as gold after its benchmark in 2025), while increasing exposure to other commodities.

The problem is that these outflows do not reflect a change in real economic fundamentals but are merely a necessary “accounting adjustment.” However, in the short term, they create a strong psychological impact on prices, especially as they coincide with an already sensitive market environment. This pressure is usually classified as “temporary price noise” that dissipates quickly once focus shifts back to long-term macro factors.

2. US Dollar Strength: The Primary Enemy of Gold

Gold prices declined by 0.3% today in tandem with the rising strength of the US dollar. This correlation is no coincidence: when the dollar strengthens, gold (priced in dollars) becomes more expensive for international buyers, reducing demand especially from emerging markets.

Currently, the dollar’s strength is driven by:

• Expectations of relatively high US interest rates
• Its relative value against other currencies (especially the euro and yen)
• Capital flows toward US assets

3. US Jobs Data: The Strange Picture

A strange contradiction emerged in recent US labor market data: job openings fell to their lowest in 14 months with weak hiring pace, yet the services sector showed an unexpected improvement at the end of 2025.

This contradiction creates a “No Hiring, No Layoffs” (No Hiring, No Layoffs) scenario, implying a gradual slowdown without a sharp economic slip. For investors, this means:

• Expectations of US rate cuts are not canceled but have become more selective
• Increased hesitation from the Federal Reserve before acting
• Very high sensitivity to any surprises in upcoming reports

Monetary Policy: The Divide Between Market Pricing and the Fed’s Outlook

Markets are currently pricing in a minimal rate cut during 2026, but recent Federal Reserve signals reflect clear caution. Policymakers are concerned about:

• Continued resilience of economic growth beyond expectations
• Underlying inflationary pressures despite declining apparent inflation
• Risks of rapid easing in monetary policy

This gap between trader expectations and the Fed’s stance creates an unstable psychological environment, prompting portfolios to continually reposition ahead of key data releases. Sensitivity increases as political decisions that could influence tariffs and economic growth approach.

Geopolitical Risks: The Other Salt in the Soup

Beyond economic numbers, the market is entering a phase of heightened political anticipation. Rising tensions related to Venezuela (ship seizures in the Atlantic), along with expected developments in US trade policies, increase structural anxiety among investors regarding global trade stability and supply chains.

Current market calm may be fragile and prone to rapid shifts upon political surprises. In this context, major funds tend to adopt defensive strategies, which heighten short-term volatility.

Key Events to Watch in the Coming Weeks

Initial Jobless Claims: The first window to gauge labor market health before the official jobs report. Rising claims support expectations of rate cuts and boost gold, while declines weaken it.

Eurozone Trade Balance: Weak exports or expanding trade deficits pressure the euro and increase the relative demand for the dollar, reducing gold’s short-term appeal.

UK Housing Prices: Strength in the real estate sector could diminish gold’s safe-haven appeal if global risk appetite rises.

Long-Term Outlook: The Big Trend Still Intact

Despite short-term pressure, major financial institutions remain confident in the bullish trend:

• Deutsche Bank: Raised its gold price forecast for 2026, expecting higher average trading levels supported by investment demand and central bank purchases.

• Morgan Stanley: Projected gold reaching near 4,800 USD per ounce by Q4 2026, based on continued low interest rates and increasing institutional demand.

• UBS: Expressed confidence in maintaining stable or higher trading levels through mid-year.

Summary: A Temporary Correction Within a Broader Uptrend

Current declines are interpreted as part of natural repositioning within a broader bullish trend. As long as the fundamental factors (rate cut expectations, safe-haven demand, and central bank purchases) remain strong, any further dips may present calculated entry points rather than a true trend reversal signal.

Close monitoring of key technical levels (especially 4,370 and 4,290 USD) will be crucial to determine whether the correction remains organized or evolves into a deeper downtrend.