Federal Reserve interest rate outlook clarified: 95% chance of holding steady in January, potential first rate cut expected in March?

【BitPush】According to CME Federal Funds Futures data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates next month is as high as 95%, with only about a 5% chance of rate cuts. This indicates that the policy tone remains relatively conservative in the short term. However, looking into March, the situation becomes interesting—the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut rises to 20.7%, implying that the market is beginning to price in a possible policy shift. Keeping rates unchanged remains the mainstream expectation (78.4%), but it is no longer a certainty. As for a 50 basis point cut? Almost no one is betting on that (only 0.9%).

In other words, the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle may be nearing its end, but the actual rate cut wave will have to wait until spring. For the cryptocurrency market, this window is crucial—expectations of easing will enhance the appeal of risk assets.