Aside from that shock last April when the trade war escalated unexpectedly, bond vigilantes have largely remained unfazed by the administration's contentious stance toward the Federal Reserve. The market's muted reaction raises an interesting question: what's really driving sentiment beneath the surface? Despite the headlines about policy tensions, traditional fixed-income traders haven't significantly shifted their positioning. It appears institutional players are betting on one scenario while politicians are signaling another. That disconnect between rhetoric and actual market behavior tells us something important about where real economic risks lie—and where they don't.