#美国民主党BlueVault Two messages at night point in the same direction: Trump's decision-making uncertainty is redefining the bottom line of global markets and geopolitical relations.

**The Independence of the Federal Reserve Under Threat**

The battle for the Federal Reserve chairmanship is deeply influenced by political factors. Wash's chances of being selected have risen to 60%, compared to only 20.7% market expectation for a rate cut in March. The issue behind this is not just the direction of interest rates, but a more fundamental dilemma: the operational rules of the Federal Reserve, as the cornerstone of the global financial system, are being reevaluated. Investors are no longer just concerned about the data itself, but about the stability of this institutional framework.

**Territorial Issues Become Negotiation Chips**

The threat of acquiring Greenland has evolved into actual pressure. Trump has publicly announced trade sanctions against European countries opposing him—initially imposing a 10% tariff, which increased to 25% after five months. This is not just routine trade friction. Analysts warn that this could cause structural damage to NATO, turning the territorial integrity of European allies—once an inviolable principle—into a bargaining chip.

**The Double Collapse of Global Certainty**

The politicization of the Federal Reserve and territorial disputes among allies expose the same phenomenon: the two pillars maintaining global financial order and geopolitical stability are simultaneously loosening. Such a scenario of multiple uncertainties stacking up is rare in history.

**Predictable Chain Reactions**

European policymakers are already preparing for a tough response, and trade agreements are under reconsideration. US stocks may experience intense volatility at the opening on Tuesday. Global assets are at historic highs, and adjustment pressures have already accumulated. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts at the end of the month, Japan is moving toward rate hikes, and the shift in global liquidity is now clearly visible.

**Risk Window in 2026**

This cycle is no longer just about simple market fluctuations. Systemic risks are shifting from economic data to the unpredictability of policy decisions. A turbulent period is imminent, and the market's pricing of this risk is still far from adequate.

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