Will Satoshi's million Bitcoins really be compromised by quantum computers? Community opinions

A recent discussion about the threat of quantum computing has caused a stir in the crypto world. Someone posted a hypothetical chart showing that if a quantum computer successfully cracks Satoshi's wallet and sells the approximately 1 million BTC held, the price could drop significantly—potentially even down to $3 in extreme cases. This hypothesis sounds alarming, but will it actually happen?

**Where is the specific threat of quantum attack?**

Industry veterans like Willy Woo point out that not all Bitcoin holdings face the same quantum risk. According to on-chain data analysis, about 4 million BTC are stored in P2PK (Pay-to-Public-Key) addresses, which include early mined coins by Satoshi. These addresses have a particular "vulnerability"—once the coins are spent, the full public key is exposed on the blockchain.

In theory, a quantum computer with enough computing power could use this public key to reverse-engineer the private key. In other words, if your public key has been seen on the chain once, a quantum computer could exploit that.

**Why are newer address types safer?**

In contrast, modern Bitcoin address types (such as Segwit and newer standards) use different designs. These addresses only reveal the address hash on the chain, not the full public key, which is only disclosed when you actually send Bitcoin. It's like a hidden lock; even a powerful quantum computer would find it difficult to derive the private key from an unknown public key.

**What if it really happens?**

Willy Woo's view is noteworthy: even if the quantum threat materializes, the Bitcoin network won't collapse. Most Bitcoin holders' assets wouldn't immediately be at risk; instead, it could attract a large number of institutions and retail investors to buy at low prices. Moreover, the network itself has enough time to upgrade its defenses.

In summary, the scenario of quantum computing attacking Satoshi's Bitcoin remains at the "theoretical possibility" stage for now, with a long way to go before it becomes a reality. But it also reminds us that the choice of address type does impact long-term security.