Paul Atkins: Why Crypto Traders Are Banking on This SEC Pick

The crypto market just got a major catalyst. Paul Atkins, a former SEC commissioner with deep ties to digital assets, is set to replace Gary Gensler at the helm of the Securities and Exchange Commission—and traders are already pricing in the shift.

The Atkins Effect: What Changed?

Here’s the thing: Atkins isn’t just another bureaucrat. Unlike his predecessor, he’s known as a pro-innovation force who understands crypto from the inside. During his time as an SEC commissioner (2002-2008), he pushed for regulations that actually made sense—not enforcement-by-ambush like the Gensler era.

His track record? Impressive. Before hitting SEC leadership, Atkins worked at Davis Polk & Wardwell, a top-tier New York law firm specializing in securities. He handled complex M&A deals, securities offerings, and even spent time in Paris getting French legal credentials. But here’s what really matters: he’s defended digital assets consistently. He founded Patomak Global Partners, a consulting firm that helps financial giants navigate crypto regulation—and he’s been vocal about how the SEC’s current approach is strangling innovation.

The Real Policy Shift: Regulatory Rethink

Under Trump’s new administration, here’s what’s actually happening:

Potential CFTC takeover: Trump is considering moving crypto and exchange regulation from the SEC to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Translation? Bitcoin gets treated as a commodity under a regulator that’s already proven itself as an innovation advocate. Back in 2017, the CFTC approved Bitcoin futures. Current CFTC leadership has signaled they’re ready to move fast: “With sufficient funding and the right leadership, I believe the CFTC can begin regulating digital commodities on the first day of Trump’s presidency.”

Cabinet-wide crypto support: This isn’t just about Atkins. As of late November, Trump’s entire cabinet is stacked with crypto supporters. Galaxy CEO Michael Novogratz pointed out in a CNBC interview that nearly all of the administration’s cabinet members hold Bitcoin and are strong backers of digital assets. The nominated Vice President, Treasury Secretary, Commerce Secretary, and several others have publicly disclosed crypto holdings. This signals coordinated policy, not scattered support.

Atkins’ Philosophy: Expect the SEC to refocus on core mission—fraud detection, insider trading prevention, combating Ponzi schemes—rather than using enforcement as a regulatory sledgehammer. The regulatory environment should shift from “prove you’re compliant” to “here’s how to be compliant.”

Market Reactions: Who’s Bullish, Who’s Skeptical?

The Bullish Camp:

• Galaxy Research: BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF options will likely see active trading through January 2027 (roughly half of Trump’s presidency), signaling strong institutional conviction on Bitcoin’s long-term growth trajectory.

• Inflation Hedge Thesis: Analysts from Deenar, deVere Group, and Copper.co are noting that Bitcoin is increasingly replacing gold in institutional portfolios. Trump’s focus on tax cuts, tariffs, and crypto is accelerating this shift. The price correlation between spot Bitcoin and gold ETFs is becoming strikingly similar.

• Sector Specifics: Blockchain gaming and DeFi are positioned to see the most regulatory relief under Trump. Sky Mavis co-founder Jeffrey Zirlin expects “token design” restrictions to ease, unlocking radical innovation.

• Price Targets: QCP Capital posted that a Bitcoin target of $100,000–$120,000 is within reach. The anticipated shift to a strategic U.S. Bitcoin reserve and gold-to-BTC rotation provides systemic support for upside.

• Ripple’s Take: CEO Brad Garlinghouse summed it up: “The crypto industry has embraced Trump; Trump has embraced the crypto industry… I’m very excited about the future.”

The Critical Side:

• Peter Schiff’s Warning: The veteran Bitcoin critic argues that government-picked winners usually end up being losers. He’s concerned that a pro-Bitcoin stance will misdirect capital and damage the U.S. economy.

• Coin Center’s Cautionary Notes: While Trump’s win is net-positive for crypto, existing policies could still scare developers away. Three “serious threats” remain heading into 2025:

  1. Section 6050I of the tax code forces anyone receiving $10K+ in crypto to report to the IRS—Coin Center deems this unconstitutional
  2. Tornado Cash sanctions and criminal charges against mixing services
  3. Precedent-setting charges against non-custodial wallet developers

Bottom Line: Atkins’ Appointment Is the Market’s Green Light

Paul Atkins represents a fundamental policy reset. With cabinet-wide crypto support, potential CFTC oversight of digital assets, and an SEC chairman who actually understands the technology, the regulatory tailwind is real. Whether it’s enough to offset legitimate concerns about remaining restrictions remains to be seen—but the direction is unmistakable. The crypto industry is getting its regulatory reset, and traders are betting it sticks.