Will 2026 truly be a year of "getting both fish and bear's paw"? Can the trio of interest rate cuts, tax reforms, and AI奏效?

In the eyes of Wall Street, 2026 is becoming a “Year of Opportunity” — and this rarity is so extraordinary that strategists are unable to sit still.

Three forces simultaneously accelerate

Typically, rate cuts, tax reductions, and technological innovation are difficult to occur together. But in 2026, the market is experiencing a rare moment of resonance.

From the Federal Reserve’s perspective, a cooling labor market is opening up space for rate cuts within the year. The latest CPI data remains at a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, while falling oil prices and easing housing costs are helping to reduce inflationary pressures. Market expectations suggest that once the one-time price increase caused by tariffs dissipates, there could be even more room for inflation to decline. Falling U.S. Treasury yields will directly lower financing costs, thereby stimulating investment desires among businesses and consumers.

Tax policy actions are equally crucial. The “Big and Beautiful Act” introduces a 100% accelerated depreciation policy for capital expenditures, encouraging companies to bring forward investments originally planned for the future into 2026. This move has a significant impact on boosting capital spending.

AI-driven productivity improvements are the third variable. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the EPS of the S&P 500 driven by AI will grow by 12% in 2026. The data already signals that U.S. labor productivity has experienced its fastest growth in two years.

Looks perfect, but hidden risks remain

However, this wonderful prospect of “gaining both fish and bear’s paw” is not without risks. The substitution effect of AI on the labor market is accelerating, and if it impacts employment, it could become a new source of instability.

Additionally, structural divergence is increasingly evident, and the market must remain vigilant about the potential unintended consequences of policy stacking. Wall Street generally views 2026 as a limited window — the opportunity for simultaneous rate cuts, tax reforms, and AI to exert influence may be fleeting.