Bitcoin surging to $100,000? What do on-chain prediction markets say

2026-01-19 09:18:33

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Bitcoin’s recent market trend has attracted significant attention. According to the latest data on Polymarket, the current BTC real-time price is around $93.18K, and market predictions for the subsequent trend are showing divergence.

Market Prediction Variance Is Evident

From multiple prediction contracts on Polymarket, the market’s expectations for Bitcoin’s January performance display a gradient distribution. Among them, the highest probability is for Bitcoin to reach $90,000, at 91%, reflecting a general market optimism that the short-term price can stay near this level.

In contrast, the probability of breaking through the $100,000 mark is only 27%, significantly lower than the expectation for $90,000. This data indicates that market participants remain cautious about the upward potential beyond the current level, believing that reaching $100,000 requires more fundamental support.

Downside Risks Are Also Noted

It is worth noting that the market has clearly priced in downside risks. The probability of Bitcoin falling to $85,000 is as high as 68%, while the chance of dropping to $80,000 is 30%. This reflects that investors, while optimistic about upward movement, are also aware of potential pullback risks.

Overall, the multi-layered prediction data on Polymarket sketches a three-dimensional outlook for Bitcoin’s January trend—both bullish expectations and defensive awareness.

BTC-2,07%

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