Bitcoin's subsequent rally from the late November bottom: On-chain data reveals key signals

Entering 2026, Bitcoin has performed steadily, with the current price rising to around $93,000 (real-time data shows $93.09K), a significant rebound from the lows at the end of November last year. But what is truly worth paying attention to is what the on-chain indicators behind this rebound are telling us.

The November Bottom Might Be the Cyclical Bottom

According to analysis from on-chain data platform Glassnode, when Bitcoin dropped to about $80,000 in late November last year, a core indicator triggered a historic signal. Specifically, the “Profit Supply to Loss Supply Ratio” for short-term holders (holding less than 155 days) fell to an extreme level of 0.013.

This number looks very small, but its implications are significant — at that time, the scale of losses among short-term holders reached 2.45 million BTC, hitting a new high since the FTX turmoil, while only about 30,000 BTC were in profit. This extreme imbalance has historically marked key market bottoms, including in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022.

Two Weeks of Rebound, Indicators Have Significantly Recovered

The rebound after entering 2026 has been quite rapid. In less than two weeks, Bitcoin has gained over 7%, and the situation for short-term holders has changed dramatically: the loss supply has fallen from 2.45 million BTC to 1.9 million BTC, while the profit supply has rebounded to 850,000 BTC, with the ratio rising to about 0.45.

What does this recovery speed indicate? It suggests that market sentiment is quickly repairing, and the capitulation chips are rapidly taking profits.

Is the True Top Still Far Away? History Provides the Answer

According to historical statistics from Glassnode, once this ratio approaches 1 and breaks through, Bitcoin often enters a sustained upward cycle. Most importantly — in history, the actual market top usually occurs when this ratio approaches 100.

In other words, the current 0.45 still has plenty of room compared to the target level of 100. This indicates that Bitcoin’s upside potential remains promising. The short-term monthly recovery might just be the beginning, and there is still considerable room for further upward movement.