When will the altseason truly begin? Bitcoin's dominance provides the answer.

The Hidden Role of Bitcoin in the Market Cycle

Contrary to what many traders believe, the timing of the next altseason does not depend on Ethereum’s strength or the number of growing altcoins. The history of crypto markets shows that it is Bitcoin’s behavior, and in particular its dominance, that determines when investors will shift toward alternative assets.

Ethereum, which currently remains above $3,220, plays an important role as the first transition indicator, but it is only the signal, not the main driver. The true catalyst remains Bitcoin, which at $93,050 continues to set the pace for the overall market.

The Repeating Historical Pattern Every Cycle

Analyzing previous cycles reveals a recurring pattern: sustained altcoin rallies have never coincided with periods of high Bitcoin volatility, but rather with phases of structural consolidation.

In past cycles, Bitcoin’s dominance reached all-time highs—approaching 70% in 2019 and exceeding 65% in 2020—before entering prolonged declines that opened space for altcoins. But the timing was not random: these reversals only occurred when Bitcoin entered a stable sideways phase, allowing the market to seek returns elsewhere.

An emblematic example: between mid-2020 and early 2021, the ETH/BTC pair established clearly bullish trends, marking the moment when capital rotation toward altcoins became structural. Prior to that, even with Ethereum performing, movements remained limited and selective.

Why Bitcoin Consolidation Is Essential

The sequence fueling the altseason always follows this pattern: Bitcoin makes a significant upward move, then instead of continuing sharply, it enters a sideways oscillation within a wide range. It is precisely during this pause that capital begins to explore opportunities beyond Bitcoin.

Looking at the current situation, a similar setup could develop if Bitcoin stabilizes durably in the $95,000–$105,000 zone, accumulating liquidity without triggering decisive breakouts. During those periods in previous cycles, Ethereum attracted new capital first, followed by selective performance in major altcoins.

When Will the Mass Movement Truly Begin

If historical conditions repeat according to the observed pattern, indicators suggest that the market capitalization of altcoins could expand significantly, while Bitcoin’s dominance would gradually decline. Based on these precedents, a broader altseason could materialize toward the end of 2025 or the first months of 2026, rather than immediately.

The key lesson is that the real movement will start when the market has completed Bitcoin’s consolidation phase, not before. Ethereum remains a reliable barometer for recognizing the transition moment, but it is always Bitcoin that gives the structural green light.