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Market Observation on January 22: Recent policy-related uncertainties have once again triggered volatility, but the actual trend suggests that the issues go far beyond that. After a sharp fluctuation, US stocks quickly rebounded to their previous levels, while $BTC has consistently failed to keep pace, and the divergence between the two warrants deep reflection.
The fundamental problem lies in the lack of incremental capital. Without a steady influx of new funds, Bitcoin breaking through the $100,000 mark is as illusory as a mirage. This is currently the weakest link in the market.
Based on comprehensive analysis of market structure and capital flows, BTC is likely to oscillate within the range of $85,000 to $95,000, with a low probability of a one-sided trend. Trading strategies must be adjusted accordingly—especially for long positions, it is crucial not to hold on stubbornly. The long-term holding principles that work in a bull market are entirely different in a sideways pattern. Greedy holding will only lead to profit erosion through repeated shakeouts, and may even result in being trapped.
The most pragmatic approach now is flexible operation: selling at high levels within the range, absorbing at lows, taking profits promptly, and exiting immediately if support is broken. Instead of fighting the market, it’s better to learn to follow the rhythm.
Range-bound oscillation requires action; you can't just hold and expect it to rise. Learn a thing or two, everyone.
Honestly, new funds aren't coming in, no matter how good the narrative is, it's all in vain. 100,000 is still far away.
Just buy low and sell high, isn't that all? Yet some insist on fighting the market—how can this mindset make money?
Sell at high levels, buy at low levels, don’t try to argue with the market—those tactics are no match.
I agree with the range fluctuation part, but I think the more critical thing is to see when the funds can re-enter the market. Without volume, everything is pointless.
Holding on stubbornly? Impossible. I already reduced my position at 8.8, now just waiting to buy back at lower levels. This is what it means to survive in order to make money.
The divergence between US stocks and BTC is indeed strange; it feels like the market doesn't take the crypto world seriously at all.
It really hurts that no new funds are coming in this time; the previous crazy feeling is gone for good.
The washout machine is still running, greedily holding positions? Then just wait to become prey in the liquidity trap. Buying low and selling high is the real meal; holding on blindly only earns leftovers and cold dishes.
In this range fluctuation, sandwich attacks are happening every day, but most people just can't see them.
Arbitrage range? I love this term. The market rhythm has changed, but people's minds are still stuck in last year, and sooner or later, they'll be eaten by the algorithms of the robot paradise.
That's right, but how many actually execute? Most will still hold until they get liquidated.