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$BTC Monthly Chart — The Four-Year Cycle Is Repeating
I believe the best indicator for understanding Bitcoin's long-term trend remains the four-year cycle theory. It has never failed, not even last year.
For those unfamiliar, since 2013, Bitcoin has experienced 3 market cycles, each comprising the following phases:
▪️2 years of steady growth (yellow part of the chart)
▪️1 year of a bull market (green part of the chart)
▪️1 year of a bear market (red part of the chart)
The bull market phase peaked in October 2025 and then ended. We are currently in the bear market phase, which is expected to last until around October 2026.
Based on the previous cycle, I estimate the target price for the October 2026 bear market to be approximately $50,000.
During this period, before dropping to $50,000, we might consolidate around $80,000 for a while.
This has truly been the only indicator that has never disappointed me. I will update this post in October 2026.