"Sell-off in America" accelerates, pushing gold prices to new highs, while Bitcoin enters a correction phase

As the global financial markets sway amid uncertainty related to U.S. policies, gold prices have hit a record high of $4,888, significantly increasing their value. At the same time, the cryptocurrency market has experienced substantial volatility, especially as shifts in U.S.-centered financial strategies ripple through the entire market. Market participants are closely watching how long this U.S.-originated market fluctuation will continue.

The Center of Global Market Turmoil: “U.S. Selling” and the Surge in Gold Prices

On January 20, the global financial markets experienced major fluctuations triggered by a sharp decline in Japan’s long-term government bonds. Concerns over expansionary fiscal plans caused the yield on 40-year bonds to drop to a record low of 4%. This movement quickly spread to the U.S. markets, with the S&P 500 plunging 2.1%, erasing all gains since the start of the year. A trading pattern emerged where selling pressure simultaneously hit the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. stocks—coined as “U.S. selling.”

Amid this risk-averse mood, funds rapidly shifted into hard assets. Investors worldwide flocked to gold, leading to shortages at many refineries. Notably, the Polish central bank announced approval for the purchase of 150 tons of gold, symbolizing increased demand for hard assets at the central bank level. As a result, spot gold prices broke through $1,800 per ounce for the first time, reaching a record high of $4,888 at one point.

In this environment, several large pension funds and investment funds have accelerated their actions. Denmark’s pension fund AkademikerPension announced plans to sell U.S. Treasuries held by the end of the month due to concerns over credit risk stemming from U.S. policies. According to estimates by Citigroup, risk parity funds could be forced to sell up to $130 billion in Treasuries, highlighting the market’s nervousness.

Bitcoin: The Battle for Technical Support Intensifies

Bitcoin is currently priced at 89.54K (approximately $89,540). Over recent days, a battle has been ongoing around the psychological level of $90,000. During a dip to $87,790, traders experienced a scenario where all year-to-date gains were wiped out.

However, many traders remain bullish. Trader Il Capo asserts that the current level is a critical support, and if maintained, the next target could be $100,000. Analyst Astronomer notes that despite selling pressure from stop-loss orders, a bottom is forming on the weekly chart, with a target range of $95,000 to $112,000.

Conversely, cautious voices warn of potential declines. Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns that a drop from $90,000 could lead to prices falling below $60,000. He considers the average purchase price of MicroStrategy at $75,979 as a key psychological support level, and breaking below it could mean further declines.

The strongest bullish indicator currently is on-chain data. According to Santiment, addresses holding between 10,000 and 1 million BTC have increased their holdings by over 36,000 BTC in the past nine days. This “smart money” divergence supports a bullish outlook. Analyst Garrett points out that the environment differs from 2022, with institutional investors entering via ETFs, fundamentally negating bearish theories.

Ethereum: The Defense Line at $2,800 Is Being Tested

Ethereum is currently priced at 3.02K (approximately $3,020). Ongoing battles around the $2,900 level are accompanied by complex technical developments.

Analyst Krugman highlights that ETH failed to break through the critical $3,450 level. The weekly chart still shows a bearish pin bar pattern, with the $2,700–$2,800 range as a key support zone. Falling below this could risk a sharp decline to $1,700.

Meanwhile, Harvey Hunter offers a different perspective, analyzing ETH as forming a two-month symmetrical triangle. Maintaining current support and breaking through $3,350 could lead to a rebound toward the all-time high of $4,800.

A warning from Arthur Hayes is also noteworthy: if Japan’s debt crisis causes the MOVE index to exceed 130, risk assets including ETH could face painful adjustments during deleveraging. This underscores that worsening macroeconomic conditions could overturn current technical scenarios.

Solana and Meme Coins: A Changing of the Guard in Market Leaders

Solana has fallen to $127.50, but on-chain data reveals interesting movements. Exchange supply has dropped to its lowest in two years, while addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 SOL have increased significantly, signaling continued accumulation by whales.

Meanwhile, the combination of politics and memes has created a new speculative arena. A tweet from the official White House account stating “Memes continue” prompted a retweet from Binance co-founder He Yi. As a result, the market cap of “$memes” on the BSC chain reached a peak of $20 million, indicating diversification of interest within the sector.

Market Data Indicating the Scale of Turmoil and Adjustment

The total liquidation volume over 24 hours reached approximately $764 million, affecting around 140,000 traders. Liquidations of Bitcoin ($297 million) and Ethereum ($261 million) are particularly prominent, reflecting significant pressure on these major assets.

Fund outflows are also observed from major spot ETFs: $483 million from Bitcoin ETFs, $230 million from Ethereum ETFs, and $53.32 million from XRP ETFs.

The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 24, indicating a “panic” level. The VIX index has surged to its highest since November last year, reflecting heightened market nervousness. However, sector-specific ETF inflows show some divergence, with Solana-related ETFs recording a modest inflow of $3.08 million, suggesting varied investor sentiment.

Key Points to Watch Moving Forward

Until macroeconomic uncertainties are resolved, market volatility is likely to remain high. Developments in Japanese government bond yields, U.S. fiscal and monetary policies, and gold prices will continue to heavily influence the direction of the cryptocurrency market.

On the technical side, whether Bitcoin can defend support levels around $75,979 and $90,000, and whether Ethereum can hold the $2,800 zone, are critical short-term turning points. The balance between large holder buy signals indicated by on-chain data and market fear signals from liquidation data will be crucial in determining future price movements.