Market Deep Dive: I Choose a "Stepwise Bottom-Fishing" Strategy Instead of Simply Waiting

In the face of market panic after Bitcoin (BTC) lost the critical support level of $74,000, my core approach is not to chase precise bottoms but to execute phased position building. Below is a detailed analysis and operational plan:

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1️⃣ Bottom Signal: The key zone is between $68,000 and $70,000, but I focus more on the market structure than specific price points.

· Technical Support: On a weekly chart, the $68,000-$70,000 range is a historically significant high point from previous breakouts and also the long-term holding cost zone for institutional investors. A retest here would form strong support. If prices quickly fall below $70,000 in the short term, it could trigger panic liquidations among bulls, but a rapid rebound is likely.
· On-Chain Data Reference: The amount of BTC held on exchanges continues to decline, and long-term holders (LTH) are not significantly reducing their positions, indicating that selling pressure mainly comes from short-term profit-taking. If the Fear & Greed index drops below 40, it often signals a good opportunity to build positions gradually.
· My Strategy: Abandon the prediction of an absolute bottom and adopt a "pyramid averaging" method: place buy orders at $72,000, $70,000, and $68,000, increasing position size at each level. If prices fall below $66,000, pause the plan and wait for new signals.

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2️⃣ Macro Intelligence: Short-term negative factors have been partly digested; March could be a turning point.

· Rate Cut Expectations: Whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March remains a key market sentiment factor. Recent economic data has been mixed, raising expectations of delaying rate cuts, but inflation is still trending downward, which reduces policy risk. The correction has also eased concerns.
· Capital Flows Monitoring: Although net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have slowed, major players like BlackRock (IBIT) continue to increase their holdings, showing traditional funds tend to accumulate during dips. If ETF net inflows exceed $300 million in a single day again, it could trigger a rebound.
· Potential Black Swan Risks: Be alert to the possibility of tech earnings shocks in US stocks causing spillover risks, and geopolitical conflicts escalating, which could impact risk assets in the short term.

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3️⃣ Contrarian Targets: Focus on "Narrative Independence" and "Capital Defensive" sectors.

· Anti-Decline Coins:
· Layer 2 Leaders: Projects like OP and ARB have experienced smaller declines than the overall market recently, supported by ecosystem airdrop expectations (e.g., Starknet), which help retain capital.
· AI + DePIN Tracks: Tokens like RNDR and TAO, which are used for computational power leasing, are supported by AI industry developments. During corrections, they show buying resilience.
· Native BTC Ecosystem Assets: For example, STX (Bitcoin Layer 2) benefits from Ordinals hype and halving narratives, with capital flowing across chains.
· My Watchlist:
· High-Risk Preference: ENA (Synthetic USD Protocol)—the stablecoin yield narrative remains intact, and TVL (Total Value Locked) is growing against the trend.
· Defensive Allocation: MKR (Decentralized Stablecoin DAI Protocol)—its actual yield model attracts safe-haven capital during market volatility.

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Summary: Why not stay completely on the sidelines now?

· Historical Patterns: Sharp declines in bull markets are often "golden pits." For example, in January 2023 and October 2023, there were cases of weekly drops exceeding 15% followed by rapid new highs.
· Position Management: Currently holding about 50% in spot positions (mainly BTC and ETH), reserving 30% in cash for phased bottom-fishing, and 20% in anti-dip altcoins. If BTC weekly closing price drops below $68,000, adjust the allocation but avoid blindly clearing all positions.
· Mindset Reminder: Reject FOMO chasing gains and also avoid FUD-driven sell-offs. Bull markets often see rapid corrections, but holding onto valuable coins is more important than frequently switching positions.

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