#CPI数据将公布 The Truth About U.S. Inflation Revealed Tonight: Will Data Burst the Rate Cut Fantasy?

The United States is set to release the January CPI report tonight, with market expectations indicating an annual CPI rate of 2.5% (down from the previous 2.7%); the monthly rate is expected to remain at 0.3%, and the core CPI annual rate is forecasted at 2.5% (down from 2.7%), the lowest since 2021.
After Wednesday’s non-farm payrolls failed to bring enough volatility to the market, this CPI report before the weekend may add some turbulence.
On the surface, U.S. inflation seems to be steadily heading toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, but a deeper analysis of recent data reveals a more complex picture. As 2026 approaches, several other retail price indicators are also showing signs of heating up. The ISM survey indicates that business input prices are accelerating, and UBS reports that online retail prices have experienced their largest increase in 12 years.
The Federal Reserve’s commonly used inflation indicator—the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices—is slowly rising. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has explicitly stated that the core PCE inflation rate is assumed to be 3%, and a 3% core inflation rate is not only a full percentage point above the Fed’s target but also the fastest inflation rate in over two years, exceeding April last year’s level by more than 40 basis points.
The ISM January manufacturing and services surveys show that the growth rate of “actual paid prices” accelerated further last month. This has raised concerns that these cost increases are being passively transferred to consumers. Input price growth for manufacturing and service companies in the ISM survey accelerated again in January. The median one-year inflation expectation for January 2026 in the U.S. dropped to 3.1%, the lowest in six months, down from 3.4% in December.
Additionally, UBS reports that the Adobe Digital Price Index (DPI) reflected the largest increase in online retail prices in 12 years in January.
Although January’s monthly inflation rate is typically higher than in other months, this year’s price increase has been the fastest in the history of the survey. These seemingly contradictory data points actually reflect market confusion: on one hand, consumer expectations for future inflation are stabilizing, while on the other hand, actual paid prices by businesses are accelerating. This situation could impact President Trump and his administration’s efforts to “reduce affordability,” and cast doubt on calls for significant rate cuts.
For Fed Chair nominee Kevin Woor, this undoubtedly adds pressure ahead of the upcoming first policy meeting in June. Coupled with the Federal Reserve Bank surveys showing strong loan growth, an annualized GDP growth rate exceeding 4%, and a relatively stable labor market, many Fed members may be questioning whether further easing at this time is wise.
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin appears uneasy about the current situation, believing that the effects of fiscal and monetary expansion may be lagging behind.
Tonight’s CPI data will directly influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path (the market currently expects the next rate cut to occur in July), which will have profound impacts on various asset prices. Different inflation scenarios will trigger different market reactions. If the report meets expectations, it could reinforce some analysts’ views that, as companies complete price increases related to tariffs, the impact of tariffs on inflation will gradually diminish over the coming months.
Gold and silver, traditional inflation hedges, are particularly sensitive to CPI data. If inflation exceeds expectations, it could reduce the urgency for the Fed to cut rates, temporarily suppressing precious metal prices; however, if inflation remains high, it will strengthen the appeal of precious metals as a store of value in the long term. Gold, which has hovered around $5,000 for most of this week, may have a chance to rally again.
The impact of inflation data on the U.S. stock market is more complex. Moderately declining inflation favors lower interest rate expectations and supports valuations; but if inflation unexpectedly rises, it could trigger concerns that the Fed will keep interest rates high for longer, temporarily dampening stock performance, as seen after Wednesday’s non-farm payrolls release.