#我在Gate广场过新年 1.2026 BTC New Year Outlook (as of 2026-02-17)

Key conclusion: 2026 will be a year of post-halving + institutionalization + cycle correction, characterized by an overall pattern of initial decline followed by stabilization, converging volatility, and institutional dominance. It is unlikely to see another 2025-style bull run; instead, it resembles a "slow bull/stabilization year."

 

2. Price Range and Momentum (Mainstream Institutions)

- Current (February): approximately $60,000–$65,000, with pre-Chinese New Year selling pressure and trapped positions ($80,000–$100,000) suppressing rebounds.

- First half of the year (January–June):

- Support: around $60,000 ± $5,000 (Bernstein, Glassnode)

- Resistance: dense trapped zones at $80,000–$100,000

- Momentum: oscillating bottoming process, repeatedly testing lows, unlikely to break previous high ($126,000)

- Second half of the year (July–December):

- Fidelity: a dormant year, support shifts down to $65,000–$75,000

- Standard Chartered: lowers year-end target to $100,000 (originally $150,000), warns of potential dip to $50,000

- Optimistic scenario: continuous ETF inflows + clearer regulations → $120,000–$150,000

- Extreme scenarios:

- Black swan (dollar crisis/sovereign allocation) → $200,000+

- Liquidity tightening + liquidations → around $50,000