Twenty-fifth Day · Why "This Time Is Different" Is the Four Most Expensive Words

This is #币圈100天成长计划 's 25/100 day.
🔄 Every bull market cycle has a voice:
“This time is different.”
New technology, new narratives, new paradigms, new institutions, new capital...
Every “new” word makes people believe: this time really is different, this time will keep rising.
And then?
History never repeats, but it always rhymes.
💎 Today's core understanding: the market has never changed; what changes is the length of your memory.
First layer: The “Old Wine in a New Bottle” of narratives
2017: “Blockchain revolution, all industries will be disrupted”
2021: “DeFi Lego, reconstructing financial infrastructure”
2024: “AI agents, the ultimate form of smart contracts”
2026: What is trending now?
Every new narrative makes people passionate.
But the underlying logic has never changed:
Consensus formation → Capital inflow → Price surge → Media frenzy → Newcomers buy in → Bubble bursts → Value reverts.
The narrative has changed protagonists, but the script has never changed.
Second layer: The “Memory Deletion” of cycles
Why does someone always believe “This time is different”?
Because the market’s cyclicality doesn’t match human memory cycles.
A complete bull-bear cycle takes about 4 years.
Four years is enough to:
▫️ Diminish the pain of previous losses over time
▫️ New investors have no historical memory
▫️ Survivor bias makes you only see those making money
▫️ Media only promotes “hundredfold myths,” not “zeroing disasters”
A market without memory is doomed to repeat the same mistakes.
Third layer: The “Silent Warning” of data
Real “different” signals are never in trending searches but in data:
▫️ Are on-chain active addresses continuously growing?
▫️ Is protocol revenue keeping pace with market cap growth?
▫️ Are developers increasing or leaving?
▫️ Are whales accumulating or distributing?
When these data start diverging from prices,
“This time is different” becomes “This time is just the same.”
✨ Today's Thinking Tool: Build your “Cycle Memory Bank”
1. Draw your “Personal Bull-Bear Map”
Take a piece of paper and chart your price trend since you entered the space.
Mark on it:
▫️ Your buy-in points
▫️ Your sell points
▫️ Your FOMO chasing high points
▫️ Your panic selling points
You will clearly see: your emotional peaks often correspond to market tops; your moments of despair often correspond to cycle bottoms.
2. Create a “This Time Is Also the Same” Checklist
When the market is euphoric, ask yourself:
▫️ What is the narrative version from 2017/2021?
▫️ What happened to that version later?
▫️ Is the current valuation already overestimating the growth of the next three years?
▫️ If there’s a 50% drop tomorrow, does this narrative still hold?
3. Find a “Historical Anchor”
For each of your holdings, find a historical benchmark:
▫️ Does this Layer 2 resemble 2017’s EOS?
▫️ Does this AI narrative resemble 2021’s GameFi?
▫️ Does this meme coin resemble the various animals from the last cycle?
Not to deny, but to clearly understand:
If it’s different, where exactly is it different?
🛠 Today's Action: Write down your “Cycle Commitment”
“No matter how euphoric the market, I will always remember:
___________ (the mistake you or others made in the last cycle).
When everyone says ‘This time is different,’
I will first ask myself: does the data really support it?
If the answer is ‘No,’ I will stay silent and wait.”
History never repeats, but it always rhymes.
Only those who understand the rhyme can survive each cycle and harvest abundantly.
👇 What has your personal experience of “This time is different” ultimately turned into?
Share your historical memories in the comments so new friends can see the old script too.