This terrible market condition really tests people's patience. Every day I glance at it, and it’s always the same—like a horizontal line, slipping down but not smoothly, making holders annoyed and those out of the market itchy. Especially SOL, after this round of decline, many people think they've bottomed out—going in feels like catching a flying knife, but staying out risks missing the move. Today, let’s have an open chat about how low SOL can go and where that legendary “bottom” might be.

First, let’s look at the current situation.

The daily chart looks terrible, with moving averages pressed down hard. MA7 (84.68), MA25 (93.35), MA99 (122.78)—a textbook bearish alignment, like three mountains hanging overhead. The price is lying below these three lines, making it hard to even lift your head. Although the MACD indicator shows the green bars shrinking and the DIF line flattening, such signals in this kind of downward trend are just “dead cat bounces,” not to be taken seriously.

The core trading zone right now is actually very narrow. Upward, the $83 to $84 level is a resistance that was previously support, now turned resistance—like an ex you meet again and feel awkward; crossing it isn’t easy. Downward, the first line of defense is around $77.5 to $78.5. Why is this critical? Because it’s not only a previous low but also a psychological price point for many. Basically, as long as the price hovers around $80, it’s not a good time to act—just typical “garbage time.”

So, the question is, can that $78 hold?

Honestly, it’s a bit uncertain. I’m not trying to scare anyone, but we need to look at some real risks.

One is “ammo” running out. Look at the trading volume—shrinking day by day. The MA5 volume average has fallen dramatically. What does this mean? It indicates that more people are just watching, fewer are putting real money in. A rebound with no volume is just playing tricks; it won’t go far.

Another is that someone might be “dumping.” Rumors say that in a few days, a large batch of staked SOL will unlock—worth about $870 million. Think about it: these coins have been locked for a long time, and once they unlock, some will want to cash out. The huge selling pressure hanging over the market is like a sword above your head—who dares to push the market up at this moment? That would be like helping others set a trap.

Most importantly, the futures market is very savvy. The funding rate is negative, meaning short sellers not only don’t pay but actually earn money. What does this tell us? It shows that few are willing to hold large long positions at this level; most are just taking it step by step, even hoping for a deeper dip to buy cheaper. The open interest is also falling sharply—everyone has left, leaving only a few old-timers staring at each other.

So, if the $77.5 to $78.5 zone can’t hold, where’s the next stop? Some see $73, others are more pessimistic, even expecting below $70, with some calling for $50-60. It sounds scary, but it’s not without reason—there’s really no solid structural support below.

Does that mean there’s nothing to do? Not entirely; long-term, there are still some hopes.

First, institutions are still buying. Don’t be fooled by the price; Solana’s spot ETF has been continuously inflowing, nearing $900 million in total. These institutions aren’t fools—they’re not looking at short-term fluctuations but at the track record and ecosystem. As long as ETF inflows continue, it indicates big funds are still backing it, providing some support.

Second, the on-chain ecosystem still shows some vitality. For example, RWA (Real World Assets) on Solana is booming, with the scale growing to $110 million. Although DeFi and meme coins are less hot now, these projects have real demand and can attract different kinds of money. The total value locked (TVL) remains around $10 billion, showing that the ecosystem’s funds haven’t all left.

With this perspective, the picture becomes clearer.

Can we bottom fish now? My view is: don’t rush, let the “bullets” fly a little longer.

The current market is a classic “long and short trap.” Upward, trapped traders are waiting to cut losses; downward, bottom-fishers are eyeing the opportunity. Most likely, it will continue to fluctuate within this range until the critical $78 level is either broken convincingly or strongly reclaimed.

If you want to act, here are two simple approaches:

First, stagger your entries. Don’t expect to buy at the absolute bottom. Divide your funds into parts—say, place the first order around $78, and if it drops to $73-75, add a second. Keep enough distance between orders so that even if prices keep falling, your mindset won’t collapse.

Second, wait for a “right-side” signal. What’s that? It’s waiting for the market to truly break out of this quagmire. For example, if one day a big volume bullish candle appears, breaking through $84 and holding above, then it’s safe to buy. It might cost more, but it’s a more certain entry—no more suffering through the dips.