Ethereum Crypto price analysis: bearish structure with a fragile short-term bounce

ETH is attempting to stabilize after a sharp selloff, and the current Ethereum crypto bounce is testing whether this is simple relief or something more durable.

ETH/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.

Main Scenario from the Daily Chart (D1)

The daily timeframe points to a bearish main scenario. ETH is trading well below all major moving averages, momentum remains negative, and price is sitting in the lower half of its recent volatility band. Until ETH can reclaim key moving averages, any upside is a counter-trend move.

Daily Chart (D1) – Structure and Key Levels

Trend & EMAs

Close: $1,968.79

EMA 20: $2,139.64

EMA 50: $2,491.58

EMA 200: $3,024.77

Regime: Bearish

Price is below the 20, 50, and 200 EMAs, with the 20 < 50 < 200 stack. That is a classic downtrend configuration: the market has been selling ETH for weeks, and every rally has stalled before reaching the faster averages. With spot sitting roughly 8% under the 20 EMA and far below the 200 EMA, we are in a downtrend with room for mean reversion, but no technical confirmation of a larger reversal.

RSI (Daily)

RSI 14: 34.56

Daily RSI is just above oversold, hovering in the low 30s. That usually signals bearish momentum with early signs of downside exhaustion. Sellers are still in control, but the aggressive phase of the selloff is likely behind us. From here, bounces are likely; whether they last is another question.

MACD (Daily)

MACD line: -198.28

Signal line: -224.30

Histogram: 26.02 (positive)

The MACD is deeply negative, confirming a mature downtrend, but the histogram has flipped positive as the MACD line crosses up toward the signal. That is consistent with a bearish trend losing momentum. The selling wave is slowing, allowing room for a bounce or range, but it is not yet signaling a full bull phase.

Bollinger Bands (Daily)

Middle band (20 SMA proxy): $2,052.43

Upper band: $2,296.96

Lower band: $1,807.90

Price: $1,968.79 (between mid and lower band)

ETH is trading in the lower half of the band, closer to the lower band than the upper. Recently hugging the lower band often marks a trending selloff. Pulling back inside, as we see now, usually means the trend is cooling and shifting into a consolidation or corrective bounce. Until price can push through the mid-band near $2,050 and hold, the move is better viewed as relief within a broader downtrend.

ATR (Daily)

ATR 14: $107.86

Daily ATR around $108 indicates elevated but not extreme volatility. The market is moving roughly 5–6% ranges on an average day. That is wide enough for meaningful intraday swings but not full capitulation. Traders should expect swift reversals around levels, especially when liquidity thins out.

Daily Pivots

Pivot (PP): $1,957.89

R1: $1,984.76

S1: $1,941.91

Spot is sitting essentially on top of the daily pivot, slightly above at $1,968–1,969. That puts ETH at a decision point. Holding above the pivot opens the door to tests of R1 and the mid-BB area, while slipping back below increases the probability of another leg lower toward the lower band and new supports.

Hourly Chart (H1) – Short-Term Relief Within a Downtrend

Trend & EMAs (H1)

Close: $1,968.67

EMA 20: $1,955.11

EMA 50: $1,959.84

EMA 200: $1,989.72

Regime: Neutral

On the 1H chart, price has reclaimed the 20 and 50 EMAs, but still trades below the 200 EMA. Short term, that is a tactical bullish reversal inside a larger downtrend. Intraday participants have flipped from selling every uptick to cautiously buying dips, but the bigger trend cap is near the 200 EMA around $1,990–$2,000.

RSI (H1)

RSI 14: 57.92

Hourly RSI is in the bullish but not overbought zone. Momentum favors the upside on this timeframe, but it is not stretched. That fits a controlled grind higher rather than a blow-off squeeze, which often means rallies can continue a bit longer until they collide with higher timeframe resistance.

MACD (H1)

MACD line: 2.29

Signal line: -1.04

Histogram: 3.33 (positive)

MACD has turned positive on the hourly and the histogram is firmly above zero. Short term, buyers control the tape. However, the magnitude of the move is still modest relative to the deep negative MACD on the daily chart, reinforcing the idea that this is a counter-trend rally, not a new primary uptrend.

Bollinger Bands (H1)

Middle band: $1,948.44

Upper band: $1,975.18

Lower band: $1,921.70

Price: $1,968.67 (near upper band)

ETH is trading near the upper hourly band, reflecting a short-term push higher. Price walking the upper band tends to accompany intraday trend moves, but in the context of a daily downtrend it often ends in mean reversion back toward the mid-band rather than a full breakout.

ATR & Pivots (H1)

ATR 14 (H1): $13

Hourly Pivot (PP): $1,969.38

R1: $1,973.15

S1: $1,964.89

With an hourly ATR of about $13, the typical short-term swing spans the whole pivot ladder. Price is glued to the hourly pivot and just under R1, signaling a balanced but slightly bullish intraday tape. As long as ETH holds above S1, intraday traders will likely lean long. A sustained break below S1 shifts the bias back to selling rallies.

15-Minute Chart (M15) – Execution Context

Trend & EMAs (M15)

Close: $1,968.68

EMA 20: $1,961.47

EMA 50: $1,955.66

EMA 200: $1,959.06

Regime: Neutral

On the 15-minute chart, price is above all the key EMAs, which are tightly clustered and sloping gently higher. That is a short-term bullish micro-trend, the typical structure you see in a grindy relief rally. For execution, this favors dip-buying within the hour, but only while the 20 EMA on this timeframe holds.

RSI (M15)

RSI 14: 60.97

RSI in the low 60s on 15m confirms a firm but not euphoric bullish tone. It leaves enough room for one more push higher before intraday overbought conditions start to bite.

MACD (M15)

MACD line: 4.43

Signal line: 3.74

Histogram: 0.69 (slightly positive)

MACD on 15m is positive but the histogram is small, showing a waning short-term impulse. Bulls still have the ball, but momentum is no longer accelerating. That is usually when you start seeing fake breakouts and choppy price action around intraday resistance.

Bollinger Bands, ATR & Pivots (M15)

Middle band: $1,960.87

Upper band: $1,972.89

Lower band: $1,948.84

ATR 14 (M15): $6.02

Pivot (PP): $1,969.38

R1: $1,973.16

S1: $1,964.90

ETH is trading near the upper 15m band and just under R1. With an ATR of about $6, a single 15-minute candle can sweep from pivot to R1 or S1 quickly. This is a short-term resistance zone where mean reversion trades often appear unless higher timeframes break in the same direction.

Macro & Sentiment Backdrop

Macro context matters here. Bitcoin dominance has pushed above 56%, which signals a flight to relative safety within crypto. Altcoins, including ETH, tend to underperform in that regime. Moreover, the overall crypto market cap is up about 1.4% on the day, so the market is not in full capitulation, more like an anxious bounce.

The Extreme Fear reading at 7 confirms that many participants are underweight risk. In these environments, even positive headlines, like Harvard reportedly selling Bitcoin and buying Ethereum, often get faded because traders focus on balance sheet protection rather than new exposure. News can spark short squeezes, but the chart still decides if they stick.

Putting It All Together: Scenarios

Baseline View

The daily chart calls the shots: bearish structure with a developing relief rally. Hourly and 15m timeframes are tactically bullish, but they are moving against a higher timeframe downtrend. Until ETH regains and holds above the daily 20 EMA, this looks more like a dead-cat bounce than the start of a sustainable bull leg.

Bullish Scenario (Counter-Trend Rally Extends)

In the bullish case, the intraday bid persists and ETH starts to climb through the nearby resistance layers.

First step: Hold above the daily pivot around $1,958 and intraday support around $1,950–1,960, while maintaining price above the 1H 20/50 EMAs.

Upside targets:

Near term: hourly 200 EMA around $1,990–2,000, which also aligns psychologically with the round number.

Next: daily Bollinger mid-band near $2,050, then the 20 EMA at about $2,140.

Momentum confirmation: Daily RSI needs to lift decisively above 40, and the daily MACD should continue shrinking its negative value with the histogram staying positive. That would mark a transition from sharp downtrend to broader range.

If ETH can reclaim the 20 EMA on the daily and consolidate above it, not just wick through intraday, the narrative shifts from dead-cat bounce to a credible base-building phase. In that world, pullbacks toward $2,050–2,100 could become buying opportunities rather than rally-selling zones.

What invalidates the bullish scenario? A clean break back below $1,940–1,950 with daily RSI rolling back toward 30 and the hourly EMAs flipping back into a bearish stack, with price under 20, 50, and 200, would suggest the bounce has failed and sellers are back in charge.

Bearish Scenario (Downtrend Resumes)

The bearish scenario assumes the current uptick is only a pause before another leg lower.

Trigger zone: Failure to hold above the daily and hourly pivots around $1,958–1,969, followed by a break under S1 levels at $1,942 on D1 and $1,965 then $1,960 on intraday charts.

Downside path:

Re-test of the daily lower Bollinger Band near $1,808 as the next major volatility reference.

Below that, the market would likely start searching for fresh structural support, potentially setting new local lows with ATR-sized daily candles, roughly $100 each way.

Momentum confirmation: Daily RSI failing to recover above 35 and sliding back toward or under 30, coupled with the daily MACD histogram turning negative again, would show that the selling wave has re-accelerated.

What invalidates the bearish scenario? A decisive reclaim of $2,050–2,140, which is the mid-BB and 20 EMA on D1, with daily closes above those levels for several sessions. That would indicate that bears are losing control of the higher timeframe tape and the downtrend is transitioning to at least a neutral regime.

Positioning, Risk, and Uncertainty

From a positioning standpoint, Ethereum crypto sits in an awkward middle ground: too beaten up to be a clean short, but not yet repaired enough to be a confident long on the higher timeframe. Intraday, there is a case for trading the upside as long as price respects the short-term EMAs and pivots, but the daily chart demands respect for the broader downtrend.

Volatility is high enough that being wrong carries a real cost. With daily ATR over $100, entries that are even slightly mistimed can see 3–5% swings against them in a matter of hours. In this tape, sizing and risk limits matter more than usual, especially with sentiment buried in Extreme Fear and macro narratives shifting quickly.

The key is to stay honest about the regime: the daily trend is still down. Until Ethereum can regain its 20-day EMA and defend it, rallies are guilty until proven innocent. Traders operating on lower timeframes can lean into the bounce, but they are trading against the main Ethereum crypto trend, and that always comes with a shorter leash.