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Just recently, due to the government shutdown, the December PCE data released today showed annual and monthly rates both exceeding expectations by 0.1 percentage points.
This directly offset the optimistic expectations for rate cuts driven by last week's CPI decline, leading to a slight dip in the market.
However, macroeconomic data is no longer the absolute main driver of the market trend. Currently, the market's sensitivity to macro indicators is decreasing; as long as the data does not show extreme deviations, such discrepancies will only cause minor fluctuations and are unlikely to trigger large-scale cross-asset sell-offs.
But last week's CPI decline may have given Trump the confidence to pursue short-term military adventures in Iran.
Because the U.S. relies heavily on low oil prices to maintain low inflation, the rebound in PCE this week might make Trump more cautious in his decision-making, reducing the likelihood of him taking military action.
During the New Year holiday, the absence of participation from the Chinese market and the closure of key Asian funds directly drained a significant portion of liquidity from the global markets.
In the absence of sufficient trading volume support, whether in traditional stock and bond markets, cryptocurrencies, or international political games, all parties tend to remain on the sidelines, leading to a severe compression of overall volatility.