Bitcoin officially enters the "Era of Scarcity," with the last 1 million coins taking 114 years to mine

This may be the most symbolic milestone in Bitcoin’s history. This week, the Bitcoin network will see the birth of the 20 millionth Bitcoin. This means that over 95% of the total supply of 21 million set by Satoshi Nakamoto has already entered the market. The remaining less than 5%—the final 1 million Bitcoins—will be mined at an extremely slow pace, expected to take up to 114 years, until the next century and the one after that.

This is not just a string of numbers in code but an ultimate validation of the scarcity of “digital gold.”

1. 95% of supply is a done deal, only “the last 3,000” left

● According to real-time on-chain data, as of March 3, approximately 19,997,001 Bitcoins have been mined, just a few thousand short of 20 million. Based on the current network output of 6.25 blocks every 10 minutes, with an average daily production of about 450 BTC, this historic moment will be officially confirmed within the next week (about 7 days).

● From Satoshi Nakamoto mining the genesis block with 50 BTC in January 2009 to now, when the 20 millionth Bitcoin is mined, we have traveled 17 years. However, the road ahead will be even longer.

2. The 114-year marathon: Why is the last 1 million so hard to mine?

If you think Bitcoin mining will accelerate like gold rushes, you’re mistaken. The code contains a cold rule: every 210,000 blocks (about 4 years), the block reward halves.

Currently, each block rewards only 3.125 BTC. By 2028, this will halve again to 1.5625 BTC. As rewards continue to shrink, Bitcoin’s inflation rate will be gradually compressed to nearly zero.

Based on this mechanism:

● 99% of the supply will be mined by January 2035.

● The last full Bitcoin is expected to be mined around 2105.

● The tiny fractions of Bitcoin as block rewards will continue to be mined until around 2140, when the entire network will truly stop producing new Bitcoins.

This means our generation has witnessed Bitcoin’s rapid rise from zero to 20 million, while our descendants may still be witnessing the final 100,000,000 coins being mined. This is the so-called “century-spanning mining.”

3. Miners’ “final battle”: from gold prospectors to rent collectors

● The birth of the 20 millionth Bitcoin is not just a numerical milestone but a turning point in Bitcoin’s economic model.

● In the past, miners’ main income came from block rewards (newly issued Bitcoins). Now, as rewards diminish, transaction fees will gradually become miners’ primary income source. Experts say that the proportion of miner fees has risen from nearly 0% in 2010 to about 15% today.

● This is akin to miners transforming from “gold prospectors” into “rent collectors.” In the future, their main motivation to maintain network security will no longer be the newly mined coins but the transaction fees paid by users. This also presents a new challenge for Bitcoin: if fees are insufficient to incentivize miners, will security be affected? But for now, there is enough time for technology to evolve before that day.

4. Scarcity confirmed: the golden rule in code

● Bitcoin surpassing 20 million coins is seen in the industry as the strongest reinforcement of its “verifiable scarcity.”

● Unlike gold, whose scarcity is based on the guess of “how much is underground,” Bitcoin’s scarcity is written into code, running on tens of thousands of nodes, and is an unchangeable mathematical law.

● According to analysis from BTCC Research Institute, considering that about 4 million Bitcoins in early wallets may be lost due to lost private keys, the actual circulating supply is much scarcer than the data shows. This adds an extra layer of “physical deflation” beyond the 21 million cap. Reports from institutions like Grayscale indicate that institutional holdings of BTC have shifted from “high-risk speculation” to “scarcity hedging,” significantly lengthening holding periods.

5. Market reflection: new logic for bottoming and hedging

As Bitcoin reaches this supply milestone, market sentiment is quietly shifting.

● VanEck CEO Jan van Eck recently told CNBC that Bitcoin is experiencing a classic four-year cycle bottoming phase. “Bitcoin rises for three years and then sharply corrects in the fourth year. 2026 is exactly that fourth year,” he said. As the halving cycle’s negative effects are gradually digested, the market is at the start of recovery.

● Interestingly, geopolitical tensions have inadvertently fueled Bitcoin. As tensions in the Middle East escalate, traditional cross-border bank transfers face disruptions, while in regions like the UAE and Dubai, crypto payment networks are becoming efficient alternatives for fund transfers. This “decentralized safe haven” function is increasingly recognized.

● Although Bitcoin’s current price hovers around $68,000, down 40% from its all-time high, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows remain strong, with trust products from firms like BlackRock even trading at premiums. Smart money often quietly positions itself during pessimistic times.

The emergence of the 20 millionth Bitcoin is like a starting gun: Bitcoin’s adolescence is over, and the era of scarcity has officially begun. For true long-term holders, the remaining 1 million coins will take 114 years to mine. It sounds like a distant legend, but this extreme slow pace and certainty form the foundation of Bitcoin’s faith.

In a world where printing presses never stop, an asset that cannot be increased in supply is itself an answer.